Concentrated Portfolio - 50% Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
89.3%
3x
17.3%
10x
1.5%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.27
Median
1.62
Top Quartile
2.74

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$714.3K
Blended Cost Basis
$13.7M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
2.03%
Avg At Exit
2.21%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 14 - $119,783,515 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $14,086,957
Return: $4,882,604 (own at exit: 4.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,460,218 (1.22% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $16,000,000 (4.46%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,422,386 (2.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $117,644,582 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $15,985,836
Return: $4,199,501 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,368,955 (1.16% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $19,000,000 (3.76%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,830,546 (2.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $50,594,614 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $17,444,703
Return: $2,102,444 (own at exit: 4.16%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $539,675 (1.07% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $18,500,000 (3.86%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,562,767 (3.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $40,995,801 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $14,867,089
Return: $2,014,112 (own at exit: 4.91%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $452,367 (1.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $15,000,000 (4.76%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,561,744 (3.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.27%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.38%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.27%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.38%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.5% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 11 - $1,175,818,685 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $20,511,628
Return: $16,737,186 (own at exit: 1.42%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,504,175 (0.47% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $24,500,000 (2.92%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,233,010 (0.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $43,651,736 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $18,912,736
Return: $1,651,165 (own at exit: 3.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $517,353 (1.19% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $22,000,000 (3.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,133,811 (2.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $43,569,323 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $16,434,783
Return: $1,920,607 (own at exit: 4.41%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $497,935 (1.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $17,500,000 (4.08%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,422,671 (3.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.27%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.38%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.17% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed With Bridge Follow-on Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on before the A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$10-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$15-25M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 8
1% $1B 7
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1