Concentrated Portfolio - No Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
47.5%
3x
4%
10x
1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.62
Median
0.96
Top Quartile
1.49

Investments

Initial Check
$500K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$12.4M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
4.07%
Avg At Exit
1.41%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 8 - $968,028,083 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $9,062,955 (own at exit: 0.94%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,062,955 (0.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $22,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.35%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.85%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.76%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,500,000 (4.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.76%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,500,000 (4.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.35%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.35%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.35%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.45%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,500,000 (3.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 13 - $1,181,677,636 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $11,063,204 (own at exit: 0.94%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $11,063,203 (0.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $16,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $59,297,235 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $1,807,154 (own at exit: 3.05%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,500,000 (4.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,807,153 (3.05% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $21,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $45,337,144 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $1,450,789 (own at exit: 3.2%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,450,788 (3.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $20,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,500,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.45%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,500,000 (3.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,500,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.85%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,500,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.76%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,500,000 (4.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.45%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,500,000 (3.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.85%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.85% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed With Bridge Follow-on Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on before the A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$10-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$15-25M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 8
1% $1B 7
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1