Concentrated Portfolio - 50% Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
96.9%
3x
69.7%
10x
18%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
2.71
Median
3.99
Top Quartile
8.09

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$714.3K
Blended Cost Basis
$5.3M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
5.1%
Avg At Exit
6.55%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 18 - $118,737,075 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $5,861,842
Return: $11,809,970 (own at exit: 9.95%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,763,335 (2.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $6,000,000 (11.9%)
   Check 2 Returns: $9,046,634 (7.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $111,776,245 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $6,537,736
Return: $9,901,011 (own at exit: 8.86%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,601,338 (2.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $7,000,000 (10.2%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,299,673 (6.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $44,312,538 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $6,923,077
Return: $4,583,183 (own at exit: 10.34%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,418,001 (3.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $8,000,000 (8.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,165,181 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $43,541,310 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $6,853,846
Return: $4,584,089 (own at exit: 10.53%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,266,656 (2.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $7,500,000 (9.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,317,433 (7.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $1,125,548,329 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $6,352,941
Return: $51,371,312 (own at exit: 4.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,440,983 (1.64% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $8,000,000 (8.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $32,930,328 (2.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $55,165,126 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $7,043,478
Return: $5,674,127 (own at exit: 10.29%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,471,070 (2.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $7,500,000 (9.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,203,057 (7.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $44,677,722 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $6,657,534
Return: $4,779,807 (own at exit: 10.7%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,588,541 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $8,000,000 (8.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,191,265 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $43,676,888 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $6,657,534
Return: $4,672,734 (own at exit: 10.7%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,552,956 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $8,000,000 (8.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,119,777 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

Fork this model

Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1