Concentrated Portfolio - No Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
80.2%
3x
33.9%
10x
15%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.12
Median
1.95
Top Quartile
3.90

Investments

Initial Check
$500K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$5M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
10.2%
Avg At Exit
3.63%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 14 - $830,392,676 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $18,140,205 (own at exit: 2.18%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,140,204 (2.18% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $7,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $46,287,221 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $3,702,978 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,702,977 (8% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $8,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 12 - $1,194,605,774 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $31,315,874 (own at exit: 2.62%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $31,315,873 (2.62% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $6,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $58,053,623 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $3,377,665 (own at exit: 5.82%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,377,665 (5.82% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $6,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $56,951,177 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $4,556,094 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,556,094 (8% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $7,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $45,228,901 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $3,618,312 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,618,312 (8% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $6,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1