Concentrated Model - 50% Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
94.9%
3x
17.8%
10x
1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.35
Median
1.71
Top Quartile
2.30

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$714.3K
Blended Cost Basis
$58.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
0.76%
Avg At Exit
0.57%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 3 - $1,109,739,056 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $74,561,070
Return: $6,655,348 (own at exit: 0.6%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $41,000,000 (0.61%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,771,640 (0.25% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $104,500,000 (0.68%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,883,707 (0.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $1,043,811,569 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $65,252,182
Return: $6,828,876 (own at exit: 0.65%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $25,000,000 (1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,275,452 (0.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $149,500,000 (0.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,553,423 (0.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $179,627,522 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,000,000
Return: $776,768 (own at exit: 0.43%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $37,000,000 (0.68%)
   Check 1 Returns: $776,767 (0.43% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $119,557,060 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $47,581,107
Return: $1,705,087 (own at exit: 1.43%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $20,500,000 (1.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $933,128 (0.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $88,500,000 (0.81%)
   Check 2 Returns: $771,958 (0.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $105,641,391 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $46,000,000
Return: $367,448 (own at exit: 0.35%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $46,000,000 (0.54%)
   Check 1 Returns: $367,448 (0.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $104,291,903 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $77,437,556
Return: $954,674 (own at exit: 0.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $49,500,000 (0.51%)
   Check 1 Returns: $337,105 (0.32% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $96,500,000 (0.74%)
   Check 2 Returns: $617,568 (0.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $88,599,140 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $65,110,425
Return: $907,964 (own at exit: 1.02%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $25,000,000 (1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $567,034 (0.64% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $148,500,000 (0.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $340,929 (0.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $81,805,637 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $58,453,608
Return: $970,538 (own at exit: 1.19%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $30,000,000 (0.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $436,296 (0.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $87,500,000 (0.82%)
   Check 2 Returns: $534,240 (0.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.51%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $39,500,000 (0.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.51% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $69,216,891
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.22%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $29,000,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.69% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $134,500,000 (0.53%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $57,257,476
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.49%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $25,500,000 (0.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $101,500,000 (0.7%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $41,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.48%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $41,500,000 (0.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.74%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $27,000,000 (0.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $36,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $36,000,000 (0.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.93%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $21,500,000 (1.16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.83%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $24,000,000 (1.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $30,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $30,000,000 (0.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $42,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.48%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $42,000,000 (0.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.71%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $28,000,000 (0.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $30,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.66%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $30,500,000 (0.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.66% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $8,306,734,729 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $40,500,000
Return: $16,802,166 (own at exit: 0.2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $40,500,000 (0.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,802,165 (0.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $950,687,005 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $41,500,000
Return: $2,345,792 (own at exit: 0.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $41,500,000 (0.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,345,791 (0.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $214,740,034 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $59,428,227
Return: $2,534,872 (own at exit: 1.18%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $34,000,000 (0.74%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,010,541 (0.47% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $80,500,000 (0.89%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,524,330 (0.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $119,661,620 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,500,000
Return: $510,556 (own at exit: 0.43%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $37,500,000 (0.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $510,556 (0.43% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $117,740,108 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,000,000
Return: $649,601 (own at exit: 0.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $29,000,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $649,600 (0.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $116,186,886 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $55,155,963
Return: $1,459,045 (own at exit: 1.26%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $28,000,000 (0.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $663,925 (0.57% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $83,500,000 (0.86%)
   Check 2 Returns: $795,119 (0.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $109,347,973 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $63,221,759
Return: $1,211,049 (own at exit: 1.11%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $35,500,000 (0.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $492,835 (0.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $87,000,000 (0.82%)
   Check 2 Returns: $718,213 (0.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $100,296,480 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $70,799,183
Return: $981,391 (own at exit: 0.98%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $36,000,000 (0.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $445,762 (0.44% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $107,000,000 (0.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $535,628 (0.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $99,318,535 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $42,000,000
Return: $378,356 (own at exit: 0.38%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $42,000,000 (0.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $378,356 (0.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $93,814,135 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $38,500,000
Return: $389,877 (own at exit: 0.42%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $38,500,000 (0.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $389,876 (0.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $90,145,673 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $32,000,000
Return: $450,728 (own at exit: 0.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $32,000,000 (0.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $450,728 (0.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $64,589,001
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.32%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $28,500,000 (0.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.7% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $116,000,000 (0.62%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $51,099,655
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.64%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $20,500,000 (1.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $107,000,000 (0.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $64,155,963
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.3%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $24,500,000 (1.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.82% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $148,000,000 (0.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $59,195,876
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.4%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $22,000,000 (1.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $145,000,000 (0.49%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $49,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.4%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $49,500,000 (0.51%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $25,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $25,500,000 (0.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $34,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.59%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $34,000,000 (0.74%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.63%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $31,500,000 (0.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.53%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $37,500,000 (0.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.53% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Series A Market

First investment is at Series A and the follow-on is at Series B.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$20-50M
Follow-on Valuation
$75-150M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
1% $10B 6
2% $1B 5
5% $500M 4
20% $200M 3
33% $100M 3
39% $0 2