Concentrated Model - No Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
98.6%
3x
25.5%
10x
2.5%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.78
Median
2.25
Top Quartile
3.04

Investments

Initial Check
$500K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$35.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
1.54%
Avg At Exit
0.65%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 7 - $1,195,764,312 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $47,000,000
Return: $5,210,479 (own at exit: 0.44%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $47,000,000 (1.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,210,479 (0.44% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $83,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $1,010,269,398 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $42,500,000
Return: $4,868,310 (own at exit: 0.48%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $42,500,000 (1.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,868,309 (0.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $234,028,781 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,000,000
Return: $2,415,781 (own at exit: 1.03%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $31,000,000 (1.61%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,415,780 (1.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $175,282,487 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $48,000,000
Return: $1,168,550 (own at exit: 0.67%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $48,000,000 (1.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,168,549 (0.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $173,253,587 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,500,000
Return: $1,478,431 (own at exit: 0.85%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $37,500,000 (1.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,478,430 (0.85% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $86,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $112,409,307 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,500,000
Return: $1,468,203 (own at exit: 1.31%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $24,500,000 (2.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,468,203 (1.31% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $116,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $105,170,315 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $49,000,000
Return: $686,827 (own at exit: 0.65%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $49,000,000 (1.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $686,826 (0.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $103,502,643 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,500,000
Return: $838,502 (own at exit: 0.81%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $39,500,000 (1.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $838,502 (0.81% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $103,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $103,485,676 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,500,000
Return: $1,249,638 (own at exit: 1.21%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $26,500,000 (1.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,249,638 (1.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $102,817,432 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $45,500,000
Return: $723,112 (own at exit: 0.7%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $45,500,000 (1.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $723,111 (0.7% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $138,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $102,138,043 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $36,000,000
Return: $907,894 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $36,000,000 (1.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $907,893 (0.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $93,691,304 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $25,500,000
Return: $1,175,734 (own at exit: 1.25%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $25,500,000 (1.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,175,734 (1.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.74%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $23,000,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.74% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $140,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.43%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $28,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $114,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.86%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $21,500,000 (2.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $78,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $50,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.8%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $50,000,000 (1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.8% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.38%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $29,000,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.74%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $23,000,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $33,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.21%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $33,000,000 (1.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.63%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $24,500,000 (2.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.63% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 14 - $1,185,563,856 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $47,500,000
Return: $5,111,652 (own at exit: 0.43%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $47,500,000 (1.05%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,111,652 (0.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $84,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $1,118,911,618 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,000,000
Return: $5,875,720 (own at exit: 0.53%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $39,000,000 (1.28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,875,720 (0.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $119,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $877,899,377 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,500,000
Return: $6,537,956 (own at exit: 0.74%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $27,500,000 (1.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,537,956 (0.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $233,680,351 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,000,000
Return: $2,670,633 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $28,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,670,632 (1.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $210,507,930 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,500,000
Return: $3,133,141 (own at exit: 1.49%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $21,500,000 (2.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,133,141 (1.49% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $78,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $177,509,708 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,000,000
Return: $2,028,682 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $28,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,028,682 (1.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $113,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $161,290,260 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,000,000
Return: $1,394,943 (own at exit: 0.86%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $37,000,000 (1.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,394,942 (0.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $95,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $107,553,275 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,000,000
Return: $1,110,227 (own at exit: 1.03%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $31,000,000 (1.61%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,110,227 (1.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $105,166,507 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $48,500,000
Return: $693,882 (own at exit: 0.66%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $48,500,000 (1.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $693,882 (0.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $100,524,369 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $43,000,000
Return: $748,088 (own at exit: 0.74%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $43,000,000 (1.16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $748,088 (0.74% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $90,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $84,311,771 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $46,000,000
Return: $586,517 (own at exit: 0.7%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $46,000,000 (1.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $586,516 (0.7% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $140,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.07%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $37,500,000 (1.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $25,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.6%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $25,000,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $145,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.45%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $27,500,000 (1.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.63%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $24,500,000 (2.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.27%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $31,500,000 (1.59%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $24,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $33,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.21%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $33,000,000 (1.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $20,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.54%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $26,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.54% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Series A Market

First investment is at Series A and the follow-on is at Series B.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$20-50M
Follow-on Valuation
$75-150M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
1% $10B 6
2% $1B 5
5% $500M 4
20% $200M 3
33% $100M 3
39% $0 2