15m checks by @NWischoff

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
34.4%
3x
10.1%
10x
2.4%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.50
Median
0.75
Top Quartile
1.24

Investments

Initial Check
$12.5M
Follow-on
$41.7M
Blended Cost Basis
$34.6M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
90.7%
Avg At Exit
73.85%
Dilution/Round
25%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $1,157,342,726 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $227,907,491 (own at exit: 19.69%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $26,000,000 (48.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $227,907,490 (19.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $114,685,315 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,000,000
Return: $25,529,948 (own at exit: 22.26%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $23,000,000 (54.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $25,529,948 (22.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $110,875,506 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $30,929,253
Return: $92,495,782 (own at exit: 83.42%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $20,500,000 (60.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $27,691,833 (24.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $36,500,000 (114.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $64,803,948 (58.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $102,949,962 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $47,918,528 (own at exit: 46.55%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $11,000,000 (113.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $47,918,527 (46.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $45,634,436
Return: $0 (own at exit: 52.51%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $15,500,000 (80.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.03% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $109,500,000 (38.05%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (19.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.96%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $28,500,000 (43.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $42,008,571
Return: $0 (own at exit: 57.19%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $14,500,000 (86.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.31% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $97,500,000 (42.74%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (21.88% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $19,625,201
Return: $0 (own at exit: 118.04%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $5,500,000 (227.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (93.09% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $85,500,000 (48.73%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (24.95% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.29%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $28,000,000 (44.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.62%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $27,500,000 (45.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 37.93%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $13,500,000 (92.59%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (37.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 19.32%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $26,500,000 (47.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (19.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 19.69%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $26,000,000 (48.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (19.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 28.44%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $18,000,000 (69.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (28.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 42.67%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $12,000,000 (104.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (42.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25.6%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $20,000,000 (62.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 85.33%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $6,000,000 (208.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (85.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $36,689,220
Return: $0 (own at exit: 64.46%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $11,500,000 (108.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.52% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $107,000,000 (38.94%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (19.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $56,320,917
Return: $0 (own at exit: 43.91%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $24,000,000 (52.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $94,500,000 (44.09%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (22.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $19,339,420
Return: $0 (own at exit: 117.8%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $5,000,000 (250%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (102.4% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $138,500,000 (30.08%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (15.4% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 6 - $994,486,028 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $61,091,673
Return: $392,252,828 (own at exit: 39.44%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $21,500,000 (58.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $236,826,440 (23.81% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $136,500,000 (30.53%)
   Check 2 Returns: $155,426,387 (15.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $892,139,432 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,500,000
Return: $222,817,263 (own at exit: 24.98%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $20,500,000 (60.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $222,817,263 (24.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $91,751,864 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $68,014,113
Return: $32,192,942 (own at exit: 35.09%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $22,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $20,878,646 (22.76% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $173,000,000 (24.08%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,314,295 (12.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $80,538,737 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,500,000
Return: $22,289,640 (own at exit: 27.68%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $18,500,000 (67.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $22,289,639 (27.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $55,573,099
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.88%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $25,500,000 (49.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20.08% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $86,000,000 (48.45%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (24.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.33%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $24,000,000 (52.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $49,705,331
Return: $0 (own at exit: 46.97%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $14,500,000 (86.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.31% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $183,000,000 (22.77%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (11.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $77,848,249
Return: $0 (own at exit: 31.13%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $28,500,000 (43.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $162,000,000 (25.72%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (13.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 93.09%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $5,500,000 (227.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (93.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 22.26%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $23,000,000 (54.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (22.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 39.38%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $13,000,000 (96.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (39.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.33%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $24,000,000 (52.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 30.12%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $17,000,000 (73.53%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (30.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 39.38%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $13,000,000 (96.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (39.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 23.81%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $21,500,000 (58.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (23.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.66%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $29,000,000 (43.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.96%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $28,500,000 (43.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 35.31%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $14,500,000 (86.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $35,502,896
Return: $0 (own at exit: 64.64%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $9,500,000 (131.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (53.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $198,500,000 (20.99%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (10.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $54,166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $22,213,592
Return: $0 (own at exit: 113.21%)
   Check 1: $12,500,000 @ $11,000,000 (113.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (46.55% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $41,666,667 @ $32,000,000 (130.21%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (66.67% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$500,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
25%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Multistage

Investing in a wide range of valuations.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$5-30M
Follow-on Valuation
$30-200M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
25%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.01% $50B 5
0.1% $10B 5
0.5% $5B 5
1% $1B 5
5% $250M 5
20% $100M 5
73.39% $0 5