winning by @Samer_Saab

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
35.5%
3x
12.7%
10x
0.7%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.50
Median
0.76
Top Quartile
1.34

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$468.8K
Blended Cost Basis
$29.8M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
1.82%
Avg At Exit
1.14%
Dilution/Round
25%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 20 - $1,184,464,996 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $46,071,429
Return: $8,450,285 (own at exit: 0.71%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $30,000,000 (0.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,042,973 (0.34% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $64,500,000 (0.73%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,407,311 (0.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $117,508,147 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $41,068,755
Return: $870,626 (own at exit: 0.74%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $16,500,000 (1.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $729,262 (0.62% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $199,500,000 (0.23%)
   Check 2 Returns: $141,363 (0.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $99,032,603 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $46,656,021
Return: $685,452 (own at exit: 0.69%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $26,500,000 (0.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $382,676 (0.39% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $78,500,000 (0.6%)
   Check 2 Returns: $302,774 (0.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $97,961,617 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $19,954,425
Return: $1,472,235 (own at exit: 1.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,337,502 (1.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $174,500,000 (0.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $134,732 (0.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $84,485,343 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $692,104 (own at exit: 0.82%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $692,103 (0.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $48,684,722
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.64%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $21,500,000 (1.16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.48% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $149,500,000 (0.31%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.54%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $19,000,000 (1.32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $24,315,171
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.24%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.08% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $144,500,000 (0.32%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $15,962,687
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.88%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.71% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $139,500,000 (0.34%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $30,713,415
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.98%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.85% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $182,500,000 (0.26%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.13% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $56,895,370
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.54%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $24,500,000 (1.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.42% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $193,000,000 (0.24%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $17,261,252
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.74%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,500,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.58% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $147,500,000 (0.32%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $55,418,398
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $28,000,000 (0.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $116,000,000 (0.4%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $18,500,000 (1.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.98%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.05%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.02%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $39,365,935
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $17,500,000 (1.43%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.59% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $118,000,000 (0.4%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $35,780,148
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.9%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $19,500,000 (1.28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $64,500,000 (0.73%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.68%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.76%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $26,943,193
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.12%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $163,500,000 (0.29%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.76%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $30,865,608
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $22,500,000 (1.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $38,500,000 (1.22%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $19,213,075
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $115,000,000 (0.41%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.54%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $19,000,000 (1.32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.59%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $17,500,000 (1.43%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $18,689,238
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.73%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $32,000,000 (1.46%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.75% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 13 - $5,950,510,304 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $23,435,856 (own at exit: 0.39%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $26,000,000 (0.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $23,435,855 (0.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $110,474,709 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $35,679,304
Return: $994,414 (own at exit: 0.9%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $19,500,000 (1.28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $580,133 (0.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $64,000,000 (0.73%)
   Check 2 Returns: $414,280 (0.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $108,413,993 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $23,884,615
Return: $1,464,794 (own at exit: 1.35%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $822,340 (0.76% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $40,500,000 (1.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $642,453 (0.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $89,722,273 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $1,670,466 (own at exit: 1.86%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,670,465 (1.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $87,996,987 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $346,573 (own at exit: 0.39%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $26,000,000 (0.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $346,572 (0.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $63,480,252
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.49%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $29,000,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.35% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $173,500,000 (0.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $29,407,722
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.03%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $173,500,000 (0.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $41,102,662
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.77%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $20,000,000 (1.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.51% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $94,000,000 (0.5%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $44,215,728
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.74%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $27,000,000 (0.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.38% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $67,000,000 (0.7%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.76%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $44,626,204
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.69%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $19,000,000 (1.32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.54% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $159,000,000 (0.29%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $40,719,844
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $20,000,000 (1.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.51% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $91,000,000 (0.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $38,590,317
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.86%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $26,500,000 (0.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.39% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $51,000,000 (0.92%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $20,500,000 (1.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.39%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $26,000,000 (0.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.64%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $16,000,000 (1.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.59%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $17,500,000 (1.43%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.35%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $29,000,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $55,381,579
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $24,000,000 (1.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $183,000,000 (0.26%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.13% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $39,404,719
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $29,500,000 (0.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.35% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $48,000,000 (0.98%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $64,592,473
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.48%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $28,500,000 (0.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.36% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $199,000,000 (0.24%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $37,275,353
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.88%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $25,000,000 (1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $50,500,000 (0.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.02%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.44%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $23,500,000 (1.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $35,123,729
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.95%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $26,500,000 (0.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.39% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $42,500,000 (1.1%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $20,561,837
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.47%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $126,500,000 (0.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.19% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $30,947,368
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $24,500,000 (1.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.42% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $36,000,000 (1.3%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $718,750
Blended Cost Basis: $42,621,820
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.73%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $19,000,000 (1.32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.54% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $468,750 @ $126,500,000 (0.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.19% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$15,000,000
Investments
30
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
50%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

Fork this model

Multistage

Investing in a wide range of valuations.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$5-30M
Follow-on Valuation
$30-200M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
25%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.01% $50B 5
0.1% $10B 5
0.5% $5B 5
1% $1B 5
5% $250M 5
20% $100M 5
73.39% $0 5