CW by @thilokonzok

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
86.6%
3x
37.2%
10x
20.6%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.31
Median
2.19
Top Quartile
4.24

Investments

Initial Check
$333.3K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$5M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
6.8%
Avg At Exit
2.55%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 18 - $1,162,839,029 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $16,935,071 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,935,070 (1.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $7,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $54,015,335 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $2,304,654 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,304,654 (4.27% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $6,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $48,746,297 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $2,310,936 (own at exit: 4.74%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,310,935 (4.74% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $6,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 9 - $9,828,976,850 exit after 8 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $114,515,880 (own at exit: 1.17%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $114,515,880 (1.17% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $8,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $59,115,805 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $2,101,895 (own at exit: 3.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,101,895 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $8,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $6,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.06%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,500,000 (6.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.41%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,500,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $5,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $333,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $333,333 @ $4,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
30
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Perfect Picking

Fork this model

Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1