cswe by @thilokonzok

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
98.9%
3x
76%
10x
23%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
3.07
Median
4.72
Top Quartile
9.36

Investments

Initial Check
$166.7K
Follow-on
$500K
Blended Cost Basis
$5.3M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
3.4%
Avg At Exit
5.02%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 21 - $1,015,916,094 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,384,615
Return: $28,203,637 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,397,675 (0.73% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $8,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $20,805,961 (2.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $52,057,177 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,333,333
Return: $4,858,670 (own at exit: 9.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,388,191 (2.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,470,478 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $45,579,642 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,183,673
Return: $3,162,951 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $883,968 (1.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $8,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,278,982 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $40,693,412 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,146,341
Return: $3,289,922 (own at exit: 8.08%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $964,584 (2.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,000,000 (7.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,325,337 (5.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 9 - $9,394,676,136 exit after 8 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,183,673
Return: $213,625,598 (own at exit: 2.27%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $59,703,223 (0.64% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $8,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $153,922,373 (1.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $96,452,652 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,058,824
Return: $5,487,084 (own at exit: 5.69%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,371,771 (1.42% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,115,313 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $57,899,015 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,058,824
Return: $4,117,263 (own at exit: 7.11%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,029,315 (1.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,087,947 (5.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $55,482,939 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,333,333
Return: $5,178,408 (own at exit: 9.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,479,545 (2.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,698,862 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $54,627,694 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,875,000
Return: $3,972,923 (own at exit: 7.27%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,059,446 (1.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,913,477 (5.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $54,336,334 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,894,737
Return: $4,553,902 (own at exit: 8.38%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,448,968 (2.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,000,000 (7.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,104,933 (5.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $54,239,409 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,875,000
Return: $3,944,684 (own at exit: 7.27%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,051,915 (1.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,892,768 (5.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $52,917,676 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,894,737
Return: $4,435,005 (own at exit: 8.38%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,411,138 (2.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,000,000 (7.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,023,867 (5.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $43,082,618 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,720,000
Return: $3,227,777 (own at exit: 7.49%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $765,913 (1.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $7,000,000 (7.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,461,863 (5.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $40,037,450 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,866,667
Return: $3,445,647 (own at exit: 8.61%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $776,483 (1.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,669,163 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $6,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.7%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $4,500,000 (3.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $166,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $166,667 @ $5,500,000 (3.03%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.03% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
30
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Perfect Picking

Fork this model

Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1