Invest early by @philmorle

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
97.9%
3x
72.2%
10x
22.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
2.88
Median
4.03
Top Quartile
8.36

Investments

Initial Check
$2M
Follow-on
$5.6M
Blended Cost Basis
$5.2M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
40.83%
Avg At Exit
51.5%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 0 - $505,698,539 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $7,140,811
Return: $255,125,424 (own at exit: 50.45%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $75,321,498 (14.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $8,000,000 (69.44%)
   Check 2 Returns: $179,803,924 (35.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $43,050,524 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $6,089,552
Return: $39,287,589 (own at exit: 91.26%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $13,776,167 (32% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $7,500,000 (74.07%)
   Check 2 Returns: $25,511,421 (59.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $41,695,967 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $6,021,798
Return: $39,184,230 (own at exit: 93.98%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $10,674,167 (25.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $6,500,000 (85.47%)
   Check 2 Returns: $28,510,062 (68.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 8 - $1,161,994,226 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $6,634,146
Return: $399,800,381 (own at exit: 34.41%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $135,382,139 (11.65% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $8,000,000 (69.44%)
   Check 2 Returns: $264,418,241 (22.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $1,045,498,508 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $6,841,463
Return: $353,431,834 (own at exit: 33.81%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $99,662,240 (9.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $7,500,000 (74.07%)
   Check 2 Returns: $253,769,593 (24.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $57,021,985 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $5,840,491
Return: $54,451,471 (own at exit: 95.49%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,247,035 (32% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $7,000,000 (79.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $36,204,435 (63.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $45,663,867 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $6,359,712
Return: $40,964,782 (own at exit: 89.71%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,741,624 (21.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $6,500,000 (85.47%)
   Check 2 Returns: $31,223,156 (68.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $44,679,581 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $7,555,556
Blended Cost Basis: $6,201,531
Return: $40,948,298 (own at exit: 91.65%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $10,398,157 (23.27% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $5,555,556 @ $6,500,000 (85.47%)
   Check 2 Returns: $30,550,141 (68.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 44.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,500,000 (44.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (44.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 40%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,000,000 (40%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (40% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $4,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $6,000,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 36.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $5,500,000 (36.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (36.36% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$100,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Random Picking

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Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1