Random Follow-On by @AlShaksy

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
32.7%
3x
8.4%
10x
2.9%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.38
Median
0.69
Top Quartile
1.25

Investments

Initial Check
$750K
Follow-on
$1.5M
Blended Cost Basis
$24M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
5.39%
Avg At Exit
3.61%
Dilution/Round
25%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 6 - $282,792,648 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $4,826,328 (own at exit: 1.71%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $18,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,826,327 (1.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $230,905,797 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $51,490,385
Return: $4,470,647 (own at exit: 1.94%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $25,500,000 (2.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,781,735 (1.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $105,000,000 (1.43%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,688,910 (0.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $84,218,673 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $30,000,000
Return: $862,399 (own at exit: 1.02%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $30,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $862,399 (1.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.04%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $29,500,000 (2.54%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $21,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $16,000,000 (4.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,486,333
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.31%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $10,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.93% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $198,500,000 (0.76%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.16%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $26,500,000 (2.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,039,735
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.44%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $15,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.05% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $196,500,000 (0.76%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.62%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $19,000,000 (3.95%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $63,811,159
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.53%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $28,000,000 (2.68%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $177,000,000 (0.85%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.43% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $22,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.4%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $22,000,000 (3.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.4% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 9 - $1,148,826,935 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,500,000
Return: $13,317,722 (own at exit: 1.16%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $26,500,000 (2.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $13,317,722 (1.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $108,431,645 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,085,714
Return: $2,903,685 (own at exit: 2.68%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $28,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,168,778 (1.08% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $48,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,734,906 (1.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $95,732,724 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,500,000
Return: $1,782,369 (own at exit: 1.86%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $16,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,782,369 (1.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $89,694,607 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,367,925
Return: $3,198,008 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $15,500,000 (4.84%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,777,689 (1.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $48,500,000 (3.09%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,420,318 (1.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.31%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $23,500,000 (3.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $57,888,102
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $28,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.08% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $119,500,000 (1.26%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.59%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $5,500,000 (13.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.18%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $26,000,000 (2.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.04%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $29,500,000 (2.54%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $23,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.31%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $23,500,000 (3.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $49,699,571
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.93%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $20,000,000 (3.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.54% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $193,000,000 (0.78%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.12%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $27,500,000 (2.73%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.12% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$15,000,000
Investments
12
Reserve
40%
Follow-on rate
25%
Follow-on Picking
Random Picking

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Multistage

Investing in a wide range of valuations.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$5-30M
Follow-on Valuation
$30-200M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
25%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.01% $50B 5
0.1% $10B 5
0.5% $5B 5
1% $1B 5
5% $250M 5
20% $100M 5
73.39% $0 5