Random Follow-On by @AlShaksy

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
75%
3x
18.1%
10x
1.4%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.00
Median
1.37
Top Quartile
1.97

Investments

Initial Check
$750K
Follow-on
$1.5M
Blended Cost Basis
$13.4M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
6.11%
Avg At Exit
5.35%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 8 - $114,312,866 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,306,122
Return: $8,147,946 (own at exit: 7.13%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.77%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,376,626 (2.95% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $23,000,000 (6.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,771,319 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $107,416,885 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,829,412
Return: $8,875,006 (own at exit: 8.26%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $11,500,000 (6.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,586,789 (3.34% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $19,500,000 (7.69%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,288,215 (4.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $12,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $12,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.82%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.5%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $10,000,000 (7.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $15,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.52%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $11,500,000 (6.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $15,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.77%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.77%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.77% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 11 - $1,046,101,638 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $18,697,450 (own at exit: 1.79%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,697,450 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $56,490,642 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,866,667
Return: $5,412,384 (own at exit: 9.58%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,465,046 (4.36% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $23,000,000 (6.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,947,337 (5.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $56,369,417 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,889,610
Return: $6,716,894 (own at exit: 11.92%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $11,500,000 (6.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,352,810 (4.17% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $15,500,000 (9.68%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,364,083 (7.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $50,257,494 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,464,286
Return: $5,807,533 (own at exit: 11.56%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,786,933 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $15,000,000 (10%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,020,599 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $42,701,065 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,306,122
Return: $3,804,536 (own at exit: 8.91%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.77%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,576,654 (3.69% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $23,000,000 (6.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,227,881 (5.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $42,168,611 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,242,424
Return: $3,799,378 (own at exit: 9.01%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $14,000,000 (5.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,445,780 (3.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $21,500,000 (6.98%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,353,596 (5.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $10,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $12,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $750,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.77%)
   Check 1: $750,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.77%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.77% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$15,000,000
Investments
12
Reserve
40%
Follow-on rate
25%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

Fork this model

Silicon Valley Seed With Bridge Follow-on Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on before the A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$10-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$15-25M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 8
1% $1B 7
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1