1 & Done by @AlShaksy

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
50.3%
3x
19.2%
10x
6.5%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.00
Median
1.45
Top Quartile
2.54

Investments

Initial Check
$666.7K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$5M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
13.6%
Avg At Exit
6.19%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 0 - $50,187,602 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $3,568,896 (own at exit: 7.11%)
   Check 1: $666,667 @ $6,000,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,568,896 (7.11% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $7,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $666,667 @ $6,000,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $666,667 @ $4,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $99,983,592 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $5,687,955 (own at exit: 5.69%)
   Check 1: $666,667 @ $6,000,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,687,955 (5.69% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $7,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $666,667 @ $6,000,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $666,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $666,667 @ $4,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$2,000,000
Investments
3
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
0%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1