Series A by @rafi

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
98%
3x
24.1%
10x
0.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.51
Median
1.85
Top Quartile
2.81

Investments

Initial Check
$4M
Follow-on
$8M
Blended Cost Basis
$52.9M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
12.23%
Avg At Exit
7.11%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 27 - $1,128,949,862 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $60,787,709
Return: $99,189,715 (own at exit: 8.79%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $31,000,000 (12.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $59,666,821 (5.29% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $117,000,000 (6.84%)
   Check 2 Returns: $39,522,894 (3.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $1,107,960,554 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $83,764,706
Return: $71,812,443 (own at exit: 6.48%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $37,818,386 (3.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $133,500,000 (5.99%)
   Check 2 Returns: $33,994,055 (3.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $237,776,669 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $36,000,000
Return: $16,908,563 (own at exit: 7.11%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $36,000,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,908,563 (7.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $227,491,175 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $56,361,386
Return: $34,528,305 (own at exit: 15.18%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $34,500,000 (11.59%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,880,504 (7.42% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $82,500,000 (9.7%)
   Check 2 Returns: $17,647,800 (7.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $223,142,056 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $48,888,889
Return: $38,623,861 (own at exit: 17.31%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $27,500,000 (14.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $20,772,496 (9.31% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $80,000,000 (10%)
   Check 2 Returns: $17,851,364 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $195,841,638 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $53,617,021
Return: $29,842,535 (own at exit: 15.24%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $24,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $20,889,774 (10.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $140,000,000 (5.71%)
   Check 2 Returns: $8,952,760 (4.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $195,400,362 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $47,000,000
Return: $10,643,084 (own at exit: 5.45%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $47,000,000 (8.51%)
   Check 1 Returns: $10,643,083 (5.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $174,620,747 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $48,500,000
Return: $9,217,095 (own at exit: 5.28%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,500,000 (8.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,217,095 (5.28% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $112,934,255 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $54,238,411
Return: $17,579,685 (own at exit: 15.57%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $30,000,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,637,056 (8.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $91,000,000 (8.79%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,942,628 (7.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $111,953,168 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $78,750,000
Return: $11,941,671 (own at exit: 10.67%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $42,000,000 (9.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,823,812 (6.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $140,000,000 (5.71%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,117,859 (4.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $108,866,800 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,500,000
Return: $7,055,671 (own at exit: 6.48%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $39,500,000 (10.13%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,055,671 (6.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $101,001,244 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $32,000,000
Return: $8,080,100 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $32,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,080,099 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $99,038,903 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $82,277,027
Return: $10,275,256 (own at exit: 10.37%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $49,500,000 (8.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,122,011 (5.17% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $123,000,000 (6.5%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,153,243 (5.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $94,225,840 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $28,500,000
Return: $8,463,795 (own at exit: 8.98%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $28,500,000 (14.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,463,794 (8.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $90,436,783 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $65,799,145
Return: $11,893,932 (own at exit: 13.15%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $44,500,000 (8.99%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,202,655 (5.75% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $86,500,000 (9.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,691,276 (7.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $81,816,524 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,000,000
Return: $5,370,521 (own at exit: 6.56%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $39,000,000 (10.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,370,520 (6.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $81,142,366 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $32,000,000
Return: $6,491,389 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $32,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,491,389 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $35,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.14%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $35,000,000 (11.43%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $40,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.9%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $40,500,000 (9.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $71,976,804
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.83%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $43,500,000 (9.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.36% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $107,000,000 (7.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (7.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $53,026,316
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20.17%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $32,500,000 (12.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.85% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $77,500,000 (10.32%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (10.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $42,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.53%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $42,500,000 (9.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $48,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $41,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.8%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $41,000,000 (9.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.8% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.85%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $29,500,000 (13.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.32%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $31,000,000 (12.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $33,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.55%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $33,500,000 (11.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $48,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.6%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,500,000 (8.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $44,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.27%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $44,000,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $40,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.9%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $40,500,000 (9.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.9% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $11,594,851,603 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $45,000,000
Return: $337,724,531 (own at exit: 2.91%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $45,000,000 (8.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $337,724,530 (2.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $567,129,226 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $52,039,185
Return: $72,310,488 (own at exit: 12.75%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $25,500,000 (15.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $45,548,260 (8.03% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $108,500,000 (7.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $26,762,227 (4.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $437,944,431 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $64,964,789
Return: $45,793,464 (own at exit: 10.46%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $37,500,000 (10.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $23,917,605 (5.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $102,500,000 (7.8%)
   Check 2 Returns: $21,875,858 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $222,534,659 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $30,500,000
Return: $18,678,319 (own at exit: 8.39%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $30,500,000 (13.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,678,318 (8.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $218,126,009 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $50,776,786
Return: $35,299,056 (own at exit: 16.18%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $23,500,000 (17.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $23,761,812 (10.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $121,000,000 (6.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,537,243 (5.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $199,843,364 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $76,235,294
Return: $22,500,882 (own at exit: 11.26%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $10,658,312 (5.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $108,000,000 (7.41%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,842,569 (5.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $196,258,601 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $54,269,231
Return: $29,791,620 (own at exit: 15.18%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $25,500,000 (15.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $19,702,824 (10.04% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $124,500,000 (6.43%)
   Check 2 Returns: $10,088,795 (5.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $172,085,195 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $79,855,814
Return: $18,416,694 (own at exit: 10.7%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,500,000 (8.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,083,259 (5.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $118,000,000 (6.78%)
   Check 2 Returns: $9,333,434 (5.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $116,808,656 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $65,262,857
Return: $15,336,391 (own at exit: 13.13%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $40,500,000 (9.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,383,460 (6.32% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $94,000,000 (8.51%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,952,929 (6.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $115,979,173 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $70,557,252
Return: $13,876,846 (own at exit: 11.96%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $39,000,000 (10.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,612,991 (6.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $118,500,000 (6.75%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,263,854 (5.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $94,697,195 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $78,769,504
Return: $10,291,568 (own at exit: 10.87%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $48,500,000 (8.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,998,449 (5.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $114,500,000 (6.99%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,293,118 (5.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $89,429,595 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $69,973,822
Return: $10,856,010 (own at exit: 12.14%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $40,500,000 (9.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,652,833 (6.32% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $110,000,000 (7.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,203,176 (5.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $84,292,985 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $25,500,000
Return: $8,462,355 (own at exit: 10.04%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $25,500,000 (15.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,462,354 (10.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $12,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $71,002,639
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.16%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $46,000,000 (8.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,000,000 @ $97,500,000 (8.21%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (8.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $47,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.81%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $47,000,000 (8.51%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $24,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $24,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.16%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $31,500,000 (12.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $45,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.03%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $45,500,000 (8.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $35,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.01%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $35,500,000 (11.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.01% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $45,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.03%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $45,500,000 (8.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.16%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $31,500,000 (12.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $22,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.22%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $22,500,000 (17.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.31%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $26,000,000 (15.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $38,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.42%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $38,000,000 (10.53%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $25,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.55%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $25,500,000 (15.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $41,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.8%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $41,000,000 (9.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.8% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $29,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.85%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $29,500,000 (13.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $39,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.1%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $39,500,000 (10.13%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.08%)
   Check 1: $4,000,000 @ $26,500,000 (15.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.08% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$200,000,000
Investments
30
Reserve
40%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Series A Market

First investment is at Series A and the follow-on is at Series B.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$20-50M
Follow-on Valuation
$75-150M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
1% $10B 6
2% $1B 5
5% $500M 4
20% $200M 3
33% $100M 3
39% $0 2