no follow-on / 20 companies by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
19.1%
3x
4.5%
10x
2.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.11
Median
0.21
Top Quartile
0.44

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$11.2M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
2.39%
Avg At Exit
1%
Dilution/Round
25%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 5 - $118,336,053 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $932,124 (own at exit: 0.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $932,123 (0.79% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $31,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $10,469,445 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $142,943 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $142,942 (1.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $40,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.79% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $46,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.82%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.82% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $35,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.71%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.71% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $44,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,500,000 (2.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.68%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.93%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.68%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.02%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.28% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $46,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.71%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.82%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.82% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $47,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.73%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.68%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $43,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $118,549,055 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $1,055,602 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,055,602 (0.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $41,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $113,118,889 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $1,447,922 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,447,921 (1.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $42,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $10,853,952 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $92,620 (own at exit: 0.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $92,620 (0.85% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $43,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.79% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $49,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $30,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,500,000 (2.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.98%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.28% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.28% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.73%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.73%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,500,000 (2.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $42,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.68%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $32,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $44,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.28% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$5,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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2023 Seed Market

2023 Seed

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$7-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$30-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
25%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 5
1% $1B 5
2% $100M 5
5% $30M 5
15% $10M 5
76.9% $0 5