25m, 33% reserve, 15% follow-on by @benparr

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
23.6%
3x
5.9%
10x
1.9%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
0.15
Median
0.29
Top Quartile
0.61

Investments

Initial Check
$670K
Follow-on
$2.1M
Blended Cost Basis
$13.3M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
6.42%
Avg At Exit
5.34%
Dilution/Round
25%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 4 - $119,413,498 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $29,322,818
Return: $5,112,220 (own at exit: 4.28%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,000,000 (4.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,340,777 (1.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $45,500,000 (4.53%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,771,442 (2.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $33,235,428 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $18,107,959
Return: $2,263,775 (own at exit: 6.81%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,216,115 (3.66% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $33,500,000 (6.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,047,660 (3.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $9,296,204 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $26,197,088
Return: $452,473 (own at exit: 4.87%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $175,943 (1.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $35,500,000 (5.81%)
   Check 2 Returns: $276,529 (2.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $8,960,022 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $29,785,223
Return: $376,951 (own at exit: 4.21%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,000,000 (4.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $175,636 (1.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $47,000,000 (4.39%)
   Check 2 Returns: $201,314 (2.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $8,949,815 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $27,656,299
Return: $401,572 (own at exit: 4.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,000,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $204,676 (2.29% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $48,000,000 (4.3%)
   Check 2 Returns: $196,895 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.39%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,500,000 (5.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.23%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,500,000 (7.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.05%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $9,000,000 (7.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.29%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,000,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.29%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,000,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.03%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.43%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.43% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.74%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.29%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,000,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.03%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.11%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.03%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.96%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,000,000 (4.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.96% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 15 - $1,106,157,387 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $29,935,956
Return: $46,274,838 (own at exit: 4.18%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,000,000 (4.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $21,683,213 (1.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $47,500,000 (4.34%)
   Check 2 Returns: $24,591,625 (2.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $11,864,290 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $20,791,299
Return: $689,813 (own at exit: 5.81%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $434,125 (3.66% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $49,000,000 (4.21%)
   Check 2 Returns: $255,687 (2.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $11,675,425 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $27,509,749
Return: $534,432 (own at exit: 4.58%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $237,341 (2.03% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $41,500,000 (4.97%)
   Check 2 Returns: $297,090 (2.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $10,552,029 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $21,404,216
Return: $617,315 (own at exit: 5.85%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $289,581 (2.74% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $34,000,000 (6.07%)
   Check 2 Returns: $327,733 (3.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $10,381,576 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,732,500
Blended Cost Basis: $22,523,183
Return: $565,717 (own at exit: 5.45%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $9,000,000 (7.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $316,559 (3.05% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,062,500 @ $44,000,000 (4.69%)
   Check 2 Returns: $249,157 (2.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $9,994,714 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $365,716 (own at exit: 3.66%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $365,715 (3.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $9,427,546 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $206,978 (own at exit: 2.2%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,500,000 (5.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $206,977 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $9,112,708 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $172,470 (own at exit: 1.89%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $172,470 (1.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $8,943,474 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $245,438 (own at exit: 2.74%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $245,437 (2.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.66%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.29%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,000,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.96%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,000,000 (4.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.89%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.49%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.23%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,500,000 (7.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.89%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.61%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,500,000 (6.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.61% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.11%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.66%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
33%
Follow-on rate
15%
Follow-on Picking
Perfect Picking

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2023 Seed Market

2023 Seed

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$7-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$30-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
25%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 5
1% $1B 5
2% $100M 5
5% $30M 5
15% $10M 5
76.9% $0 5