Chaotic Inception by @alexlmiller

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
94.2%
3x
59.3%
10x
17.7%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
2.34
Median
3.56
Top Quartile
7.39

Investments

Initial Check
$600K
Follow-on
$1.1M
Blended Cost Basis
$5.2M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
12.24%
Avg At Exit
13.18%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 2 - $119,908,284 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $6,117,111
Return: $20,190,399 (own at exit: 16.84%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,697,422 (5.59% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $6,500,000 (17.58%)
   Check 2 Returns: $13,492,976 (11.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $107,099,729 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $5,349,073
Return: $20,276,921 (own at exit: 18.93%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,225,259 (7.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $6,500,000 (17.58%)
   Check 2 Returns: $12,051,661 (11.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $59,115,277 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $5,876,147
Return: $12,765,683 (own at exit: 21.59%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,044,503 (8.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $7,000,000 (16.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,721,179 (13.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.91%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,000,000 (12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $6,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.91%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,000,000 (12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $6,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $6,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 12 - $1,190,244,893 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $5,563,518
Return: $110,478,978 (own at exit: 9.28%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $46,802,333 (3.93% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $7,000,000 (16.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $63,676,644 (5.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $53,269,719 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $5,637,441
Return: $12,038,566 (own at exit: 22.6%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,545,682 (8.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $6,500,000 (17.58%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,492,883 (14.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $45,798,793 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $5,563,518
Return: $10,378,567 (own at exit: 22.66%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,396,684 (9.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $7,000,000 (16.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,981,883 (13.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $42,218,133 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,742,857
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $9,135,200 (own at exit: 21.64%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $6,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,701,960 (6.4% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,142,857 @ $6,000,000 (19.05%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,433,239 (15.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.91%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.91%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,000,000 (12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.91%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.91%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.91%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,500,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $600,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15%)
   Check 1: $600,000 @ $4,000,000 (15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$20,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
40%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Pre-Seed Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on at Seed.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$4-6M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-8M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.75% $10B 8
0.8% $1B 7
0.8% $500M 5
3% $100M 4
15% $50M 3
79.65% $0 1