Opportunity by @atmotony

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
84%
3x
12.9%
10x
2.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.15
Median
1.53
Top Quartile
2.57

Investments

Initial Check
$2M
Follow-on
$4M
Blended Cost Basis
$13.5M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
16.28%
Avg At Exit
12.9%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 17 - $118,084,062 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,268,293
Return: $29,454,404 (own at exit: 24.94%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,000,000 (15.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,301,390 (7.88% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $15,000,000 (26.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $20,153,013 (17.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $114,867,553 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,318,182
Return: $28,005,803 (own at exit: 24.38%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $10,500,000 (19.05%)
   Check 1 Returns: $11,202,321 (9.75% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $17,500,000 (22.86%)
   Check 2 Returns: $16,803,481 (14.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $58,756,869 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,229,358
Return: $12,688,286 (own at exit: 21.59%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $15,000,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,013,919 (8.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $24,500,000 (16.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,674,366 (13.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $54,270,981 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,138,889
Return: $11,737,503 (own at exit: 21.63%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,500,000 (13.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,790,817 (8.83% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $25,000,000 (16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,946,685 (12.8% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $43,928,641 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,234,043
Return: $11,193,669 (own at exit: 25.48%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,500,000 (14.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,165,085 (9.48% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $20,000,000 (20%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,028,582 (16% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $10,000,000 (20%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $12,500,000 (16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.39%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,500,000 (17.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.39%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,500,000 (17.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.81%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,500,000 (14.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 19.05%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $10,500,000 (19.05%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (19.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $12,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $15,000,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.81%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,500,000 (14.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.39%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,500,000 (17.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $12,500,000 (16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.18%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,000,000 (18.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.18% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 19 - $1,199,968,948 exit after 7 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,058,824
Return: $112,136,476 (own at exit: 9.34%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,500,000 (14.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $46,602,171 (3.88% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $24,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 2 Returns: $65,534,304 (5.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $55,820,495 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,116,279
Return: $14,924,129 (own at exit: 26.74%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $10,500,000 (19.05%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,804,784 (12.19% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $22,000,000 (18.18%)
   Check 2 Returns: $8,119,344 (14.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $54,566,451 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $6,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,409,091
Return: $12,934,270 (own at exit: 23.7%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,500,000 (14.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,173,707 (9.48% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $4,000,000 @ $22,500,000 (17.78%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,760,561 (14.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $12,500,000 (16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $15,000,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $12,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $10,000,000 (20%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.79%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,500,000 (13.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.18%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,000,000 (18.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.39%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,500,000 (17.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $15,000,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.18%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $11,000,000 (18.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $12,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.33%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $15,000,000 (13.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.29%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $14,000,000 (14.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.81%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $13,500,000 (14.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,000,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $10,000,000 (20%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$100,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
60%
Follow-on rate
70%
Follow-on Picking
Perfect Picking

Fork this model

Silicon Valley Seed With Bridge Follow-on Market

First investment is at pre-seed and the follow-on before the A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$10-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$15-25M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 8
1% $1B 7
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1