Concentrated - 50% Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
89.7%
3x
26.5%
10x
2.9%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.38
Median
1.97
Top Quartile
3.11

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$714.3K
Blended Cost Basis
$10.2M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
5.21%
Avg At Exit
7.35%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 18 - $560,741,883 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $21,308,965
Return: $12,002,010 (own at exit: 2.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,959,997 (0.71% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $25,500,000 (2.8%)
   Check 2 Returns: $8,042,012 (1.43% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $52,406,438 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $21,015,152
Return: $1,703,088 (own at exit: 3.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $882,634 (1.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $36,500,000 (1.96%)
   Check 2 Returns: $820,453 (1.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $40,854,885 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $27,521,459
Return: $1,014,430 (own at exit: 2.48%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $522,942 (1.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $47,500,000 (1.5%)
   Check 2 Returns: $491,487 (1.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.63%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.38%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,500,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $2,500,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.94%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,500,000 (2.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.94% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 11 - $1,187,096,520 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $21,818,612
Return: $19,812,744 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,706,685 (0.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $26,500,000 (2.7%)
   Check 2 Returns: $13,106,057 (1.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $83,552,605 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $13,628,878
Return: $3,189,277 (own at exit: 3.82%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,376,607 (2.84% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $47,000,000 (1.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $812,669 (0.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $59,478,837 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $24,074,553
Return: $1,699,016 (own at exit: 2.86%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $827,531 (1.39% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $39,000,000 (1.83%)
   Check 2 Returns: $871,484 (1.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $47,546,992 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $21,398,776
Return: $1,561,925 (own at exit: 3.29%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $608,601 (1.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $28,500,000 (2.51%)
   Check 2 Returns: $953,323 (2.01% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.63%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.63%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1