Concentrated - No Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
84.9%
3x
35.6%
10x
5.7%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.38
Median
2.37
Top Quartile
3.85

Investments

Initial Check
$500K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$8.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
10.46%
Avg At Exit
13.36%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 15 - $1,113,436,917 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $14,032,731 (own at exit: 1.26%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $14,032,731 (1.26% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $20,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $118,290,193 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $2,884,028 (own at exit: 2.44%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $10,500,000 (4.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,884,027 (2.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $106,611,854 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $2,099,433 (own at exit: 1.97%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $13,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,099,433 (1.97% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $21,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $106,526,382 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $3,408,844 (own at exit: 3.2%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $8,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,408,844 (3.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $53,928,812 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $1,568,838 (own at exit: 2.91%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,568,838 (2.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.26%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $9,500,000 (5.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.35%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $3,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $1,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,500,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $7,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $2,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $4,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $11,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $7,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 8 - $1,145,466,121 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $12,942,977 (own at exit: 1.13%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,500,000 (3.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $12,942,977 (1.13% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $29,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $985,558,288 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $16,997,249 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $9,500,000 (5.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,997,249 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $115,351,582 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $5,906,001 (own at exit: 5.12%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,906,000 (5.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $49,044,813 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $2,615,723 (own at exit: 5.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,615,723 (5.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $43,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $40,110,340 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $1,604,414 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $8,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,604,413 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $2,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.69%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $6,500,000 (7.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.88%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $8,500,000 (5.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.88% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,000,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $1,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $1,500,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $1,500,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.09%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $5,500,000 (9.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $1,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.45%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $14,500,000 (3.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 50%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $1,000,000 (50%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (50% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $500,000 @ $7,000,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
0%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1