Concentrated Model - High Reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
94%
3x
24.3%
10x
2.3%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.35
Median
1.72
Top Quartile
2.93

Investments

Initial Check
$125K
Follow-on
$1.5M
Blended Cost Basis
$11.9M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
2.59%
Avg At Exit
6.2%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 12 - $1,197,631,237 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $4,905,498 (own at exit: 0.41%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $10,000,000 (1.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,905,497 (0.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $96,903,690 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $32,500,000
Return: $2,894,190 (own at exit: 2.99%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $7,500,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $826,911 (0.85% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $45,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,067,278 (2.13% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $50,390,809 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $22,807,018
Return: $2,620,322 (own at exit: 5.2%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $4,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,007,816 (2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $37,500,000 (4%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,612,505 (3.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $46,815,418 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,532,258
Return: $2,272,748 (own at exit: 4.85%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $4,500,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $832,274 (1.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $39,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,440,474 (3.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $46,784,928 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $33,868,421
Return: $1,691,819 (own at exit: 3.62%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $9,000,000 (1.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $415,866 (0.89% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $44,000,000 (3.41%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,275,952 (2.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $40,141,464 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,158,537
Return: $1,887,865 (own at exit: 4.7%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $7,500,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $428,175 (1.07% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $33,000,000 (4.55%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,459,689 (3.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $2,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $1,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $6,500,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $1,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $7,500,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $1,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.19%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $10,500,000 (1.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.19% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.27%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $5,500,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $2,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.86%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $14,500,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $3,500,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.96%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $13,000,000 (0.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.93%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $13,500,000 (0.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.39%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $9,000,000 (1.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.39% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 9 - $1,114,529,687 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $4,347,727 (own at exit: 0.39%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $10,500,000 (1.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,347,727 (0.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $974,189,227 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $34,425,087
Return: $17,588,730 (own at exit: 1.81%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $8,000,000 (1.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,987,848 (0.51% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $47,500,000 (3.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $12,600,881 (1.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $109,848,882 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $37,768,421
Return: $2,878,359 (own at exit: 2.62%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $12,000,000 (1.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $585,860 (0.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $46,000,000 (3.26%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,292,498 (2.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $80,079,705 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $25,446,809
Return: $2,952,504 (own at exit: 3.69%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $4,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,281,275 (1.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $46,000,000 (3.26%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,671,228 (2.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $59,913,726 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $31,389,091
Return: $2,331,582 (own at exit: 3.89%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $8,000,000 (1.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $599,137 (1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $41,500,000 (3.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,732,445 (2.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $42,754,143 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,625,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,114,754
Return: $2,967,640 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $8,500,000 (1.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $402,391 (0.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,500,000 @ $20,000,000 (7.5%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,565,248 (6% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $12,500,000 (1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $12,500,000 (1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.86%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $14,500,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $3,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.5%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $5,000,000 (2.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.86%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $14,500,000 (0.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $11,000,000 (1.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.14%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $11,000,000 (1.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.96%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $13,000,000 (0.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.39%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $9,000,000 (1.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.56%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $8,000,000 (1.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.27%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $5,500,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $3,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $125,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $125,000 @ $6,500,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
75%
Follow-on rate
20%
Follow-on Picking
Random Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1