120*100K Pre/Seed - No FO by @tina_nia

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
90.2%
3x
29.2%
10x
3.7%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.43
Median
2.12
Top Quartile
3.26

Investments

Initial Check
$275K
Follow-on
$785.7K
Blended Cost Basis
$10.2M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
5.77%
Avg At Exit
8.34%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 0 - $922,791,472 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $28,484,772
Return: $12,641,326 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,734,798 (0.62% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $43,000,000 (1.83%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,906,527 (0.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $50,629,227 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $23,361,702
Return: $1,679,894 (own at exit: 3.32%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $636,481 (1.26% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $30,500,000 (2.58%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,043,412 (2.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $50,430,526 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $26,830,341
Return: $1,430,616 (own at exit: 2.84%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $13,500,000 (2.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $657,464 (1.3% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $41,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 2 Returns: $773,150 (1.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $49,949,491 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $30,163,225
Return: $1,253,641 (own at exit: 2.51%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $606,283 (1.21% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $48,500,000 (1.62%)
   Check 2 Returns: $647,357 (1.3% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.5%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $5,000,000 (5.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.9%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.44%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.04%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $13,500,000 (2.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.23%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $6,500,000 (4.23%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.93%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.75%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $10,000,000 (2.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.2%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $12,500,000 (2.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.83%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 27.5%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $1,000,000 (27.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (27.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.06%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $9,000,000 (3.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.24%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $8,500,000 (3.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.67%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.67%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.75%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $2,000,000 (13.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.93%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.93% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 3 - $1,158,917,400 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $23,690,234
Return: $19,165,393 (own at exit: 1.65%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $12,500,000 (2.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,354,589 (0.72% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $34,500,000 (2.28%)
   Check 2 Returns: $10,810,803 (0.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $56,953,701 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $6,230,769
Return: $6,503,570 (own at exit: 11.42%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $2,000,000 (13.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,011,925 (8.8% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $24,000,000 (3.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,491,644 (2.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $48,955,578 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $18,409,091
Return: $2,051,472 (own at exit: 4.19%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $820,588 (1.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $25,000,000 (3.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,230,883 (2.51% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $45,183,470 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,060,714
Blended Cost Basis: $19,231,844
Return: $1,728,565 (own at exit: 3.83%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,060,305 (2.35% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $785,714 @ $42,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 2 Returns: $668,259 (1.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.58%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.58%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $2,500,000 (11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.9%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $5,500,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.17%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $3,000,000 (9.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.33%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $1,500,000 (18.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.12%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $13,000,000 (2.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.58%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.88%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.88% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.67%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.06%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $9,000,000 (3.06%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.5%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $5,000,000 (5.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.96%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $2,500,000 (11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $275,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.39%)
   Check 1: $275,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.39% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$11,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1