Fork of pre-seed, seed, a by @kubeans

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
89.1%
3x
30.1%
10x
3.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.41
Median
2.19
Top Quartile
3.35

Investments

Initial Check
$560K
Follow-on
$666.7K
Blended Cost Basis
$9.2M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
11.53%
Avg At Exit
16.58%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 0 - $1,180,977,000 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $18,884,632
Return: $26,709,866 (own at exit: 2.26%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,844,367 (1.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $41,000,000 (1.63%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,865,498 (0.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $58,864,503 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $14,258,303
Return: $3,465,344 (own at exit: 5.89%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $9,000,000 (6.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,344,115 (3.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $28,000,000 (2.38%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,121,228 (1.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $55,700,373 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $18,344,411
Return: $2,563,793 (own at exit: 4.6%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,663,584 (2.99% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $33,000,000 (2.02%)
   Check 2 Returns: $900,208 (1.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $53,996,888 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $18,959,154
Return: $2,407,851 (own at exit: 4.46%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,500,000 (4.48%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,548,198 (2.87% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $33,500,000 (1.99%)
   Check 2 Returns: $859,651 (1.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $53,259,164 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $21,485,030
Return: $2,091,765 (own at exit: 3.93%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $14,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,363,434 (2.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $39,000,000 (1.71%)
   Check 2 Returns: $728,330 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.67%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $3,000,000 (18.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $14,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.15%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.67%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.18%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $5,500,000 (10.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $8,000,000 (7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.87%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.87% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.87%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.87% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.62%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $6,500,000 (8.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.62%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $6,500,000 (8.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.59%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $8,500,000 (6.59%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.86%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $14,500,000 (3.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.33%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $6,000,000 (9.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.22%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $9,000,000 (6.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.48%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,500,000 (4.48%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.62%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $6,500,000 (8.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.87%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.87% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.73%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $15,000,000 (3.73%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.33%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $10,500,000 (5.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.15%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.15% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 22 - $1,118,755,277 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $16,727,273
Return: $29,938,488 (own at exit: 2.68%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $14,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $14,663,749 (1.31% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $20,000,000 (3.33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $15,274,738 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $884,374,321 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $21,587,644
Return: $17,462,578 (own at exit: 1.97%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $13,000,000 (4.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $12,483,338 (1.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $48,500,000 (1.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,979,240 (0.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $41,859,870 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,226,667
Blended Cost Basis: $9,620,623
Return: $3,519,708 (own at exit: 8.41%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $5,000,000 (11.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,000,515 (7.17% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $666,667 @ $43,000,000 (1.55%)
   Check 2 Returns: $519,192 (1.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.62%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $6,500,000 (8.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.6%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $10,000,000 (5.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.44%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $4,500,000 (12.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.87%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $11,500,000 (4.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.87% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.48%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,500,000 (4.48%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.22%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $9,000,000 (6.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.33%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $6,000,000 (9.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.67%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $3,000,000 (18.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 56%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $1,000,000 (56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (56% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 28%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $2,000,000 (28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (28% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 28%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $2,000,000 (28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (28% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 22.4%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $2,500,000 (22.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (22.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.59%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $8,500,000 (6.59%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $14,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $7,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $7,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 22.4%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $2,500,000 (22.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (22.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 37.33%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $1,500,000 (37.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (37.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.67%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $3,000,000 (18.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.48%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,500,000 (4.48%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.67%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $12,000,000 (4.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $560,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 22.4%)
   Check 1: $560,000 @ $2,500,000 (22.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (22.4% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$20,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
30%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Random Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1