Foo by @teich

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
89.5%
3x
25.3%
10x
2.5%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.36
Median
1.97
Top Quartile
3.01

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$714.3K
Blended Cost Basis
$10.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
5.19%
Avg At Exit
8.07%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 11 - $858,425,123 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $28,963,840
Return: $10,493,641 (own at exit: 1.22%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,849,805 (0.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $44,500,000 (1.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,643,835 (0.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $56,080,591 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $22,614,213
Return: $1,763,504 (own at exit: 3.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $598,192 (1.07% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $27,500,000 (2.6%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,165,310 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $54,417,824 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $17,307,692
Return: $2,251,343 (own at exit: 4.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $696,548 (1.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $20,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,554,794 (2.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $41,674,001 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $25,640,288
Return: $1,102,286 (own at exit: 2.65%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $606,167 (1.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $48,000,000 (1.49%)
   Check 2 Returns: $496,119 (1.19% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $40,214,980 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $12,603,321
Return: $2,169,020 (own at exit: 5.39%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,169,890 (2.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $23,000,000 (3.11%)
   Check 2 Returns: $999,129 (2.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.12%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 15 - $1,182,514,462 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $27,396,373
Return: $15,110,789 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,749,726 (0.66% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $47,000,000 (1.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,361,062 (0.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $95,048,623 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $16,260,223
Return: $3,100,563 (own at exit: 3.26%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,027,703 (2.13% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $40,500,000 (1.76%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,072,859 (1.13% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $57,829,317 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $13,459,215
Return: $2,851,912 (own at exit: 4.93%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,850,538 (3.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $33,000,000 (2.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,001,373 (1.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $47,231,306 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $964,286
Blended Cost Basis: $24,000,000
Return: $1,383,203 (own at exit: 2.93%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $539,786 (1.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $714,286 @ $32,000,000 (2.23%)
   Check 2 Returns: $843,416 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.38%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.17%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$10,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Random Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1