500k-750 checks sub 20m post val by @NWischoff

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
90.5%
3x
33.9%
10x
3.7%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.52
Median
2.29
Top Quartile
3.40

Investments

Initial Check
$640K
Follow-on
$444.4K
Blended Cost Basis
$8.9M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
13.27%
Avg At Exit
18.8%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 22 - $1,063,682,742 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $16,006,728
Return: $25,227,495 (own at exit: 2.37%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $13,000,000 (4.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $17,159,264 (1.61% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $24,000,000 (1.85%)
   Check 2 Returns: $8,068,230 (0.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $104,662,461 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $10,749,330
Return: $5,532,818 (own at exit: 5.29%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,899,399 (4.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $47,000,000 (0.95%)
   Check 2 Returns: $633,418 (0.61% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $52,432,655 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $15,237,490
Return: $2,473,941 (own at exit: 4.72%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $10,500,000 (6.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,045,372 (3.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $43,500,000 (1.02%)
   Check 2 Returns: $428,568 (0.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $46,909,198 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $17,121,410
Return: $2,056,693 (own at exit: 4.38%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,280,933 (2.73% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $21,500,000 (2.07%)
   Check 2 Returns: $775,759 (1.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $45,372,413 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $10,719,665
Return: $3,091,278 (own at exit: 6.81%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $8,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,323,067 (5.12% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $21,000,000 (2.12%)
   Check 2 Returns: $768,210 (1.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $41,008,490 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $16,147,059
Return: $1,821,569 (own at exit: 4.44%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $11,000,000 (5.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,527,007 (3.72% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $49,500,000 (0.9%)
   Check 2 Returns: $294,561 (0.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.92%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $13,000,000 (4.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 64%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $1,000,000 (64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (64% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 32%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $2,000,000 (32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (32% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.29%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $3,500,000 (18.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.53%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.53%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.64%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $5,500,000 (11.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.33%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $12,000,000 (5.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.64%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $5,500,000 (11.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.74%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $9,500,000 (6.74%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.4%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.4%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.1%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $10,500,000 (6.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 32%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $2,000,000 (32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (32% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 64%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $1,000,000 (64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (64% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.12%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $12,500,000 (5.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.85%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $6,500,000 (9.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 14 - $1,119,410,964 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $18,825,218
Return: $22,365,401 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,190,172 (1.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $33,000,000 (1.35%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,175,228 (0.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $1,073,227,493 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $13,742,378
Return: $28,766,480 (own at exit: 2.68%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $9,500,000 (6.74%)
   Check 1 Returns: $23,691,801 (2.21% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $38,500,000 (1.15%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,074,677 (0.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $100,765,175 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $11,966,972
Return: $4,872,905 (own at exit: 4.84%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $8,500,000 (7.53%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,884,556 (3.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $29,000,000 (1.53%)
   Check 2 Returns: $988,348 (0.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $52,336,247 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $5,295,431 (own at exit: 10.12%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $4,500,000 (14.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,763,761 (9.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $35,000,000 (1.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $531,669 (1.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $52,275,794 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $13,206,186
Return: $2,924,347 (own at exit: 5.59%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $10,500,000 (6.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,039,253 (3.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $21,000,000 (2.12%)
   Check 2 Returns: $885,092 (1.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $52,090,119 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $13,509,132
Return: $2,752,554 (own at exit: 5.28%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $9,000,000 (7.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,370,679 (4.55% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $48,500,000 (0.92%)
   Check 2 Returns: $381,874 (0.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $42,992,662 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,084,444
Blended Cost Basis: $16,866,258
Return: $1,872,779 (own at exit: 4.36%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $13,000,000 (4.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,354,599 (3.15% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $444,444 @ $29,500,000 (1.51%)
   Check 2 Returns: $518,178 (1.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.82%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $11,000,000 (5.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.33%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $3,000,000 (21.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 14.22%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $4,500,000 (14.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (14.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.85%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $6,500,000 (9.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $8,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.53%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $8,500,000 (7.53%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.82%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $11,000,000 (5.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $4,000,000 (16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25.6%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $2,500,000 (25.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.82%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $11,000,000 (5.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.57%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $11,500,000 (5.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.41%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.74%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $9,500,000 (6.74%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.92%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $13,000,000 (4.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.14%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.85%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $6,500,000 (9.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.74%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.74%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $640,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.82%)
   Check 1: $640,000 @ $11,000,000 (5.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.82% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$20,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
20%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1