250k checks by @NWischoff

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
89%
3x
38.6%
10x
4.4%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.53
Median
2.42
Top Quartile
3.86

Investments

Initial Check
$192.3K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$8.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
3.97%
Avg At Exit
4.74%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 1 - $1,175,950,203 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $5,293,068 (own at exit: 0.45%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $14,000,000 (1.37%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,293,068 (0.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $27,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $101,311,020 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $1,246,905 (own at exit: 1.23%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $8,000,000 (2.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,246,904 (1.23% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $27,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $87,977,413 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $1,154,986 (own at exit: 1.31%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $7,500,000 (2.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,154,985 (1.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $59,113,280 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $1,818,870 (own at exit: 3.08%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $4,000,000 (4.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,818,870 (3.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $54,908,632 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $450,532 (own at exit: 0.82%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $15,000,000 (1.28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $450,532 (0.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $49,606,334 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $610,539 (own at exit: 1.23%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $10,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $610,539 (1.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $46,724,428 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $425,978 (own at exit: 0.91%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $13,500,000 (1.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $425,977 (0.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $41,499,833 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $785,796 (own at exit: 1.89%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $6,500,000 (2.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $785,795 (1.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.69%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $2,500,000 (7.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.41%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $3,000,000 (6.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.26%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $8,500,000 (2.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.33%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $14,500,000 (1.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.81%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $4,000,000 (4.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $14,000,000 (1.37%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $11,500,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.49%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $3,500,000 (5.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.21%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $6,000,000 (3.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.6%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $12,000,000 (1.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.96%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $6,500,000 (2.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.56%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $7,500,000 (2.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $4,500,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.48%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $13,000,000 (1.48%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.02%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $9,500,000 (2.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.02%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $9,500,000 (2.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.02%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $9,500,000 (2.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.02% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.02%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $9,500,000 (2.02%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.02% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 5 - $1,162,625,773 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $10,466,187 (own at exit: 0.9%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $7,000,000 (2.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $10,466,187 (0.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $1,094,589,253 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $5,747,997 (own at exit: 0.53%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $12,000,000 (1.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,747,996 (0.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $20,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $105,555,888 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $692,880 (own at exit: 0.66%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $15,000,000 (1.28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $692,879 (0.66% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $39,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $96,545,409 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $864,183 (own at exit: 0.9%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $11,000,000 (1.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $864,182 (0.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $56,124,164 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $1,381,518 (own at exit: 2.46%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $5,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,381,517 (2.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $50,273,021 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $883,921 (own at exit: 1.76%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $7,000,000 (2.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $883,921 (1.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $47,835,025 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $654,154 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $9,000,000 (2.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $654,154 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $43,822,451 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $513,670 (own at exit: 1.17%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $10,500,000 (1.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $513,669 (1.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.67%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $11,500,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.85%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $5,000,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.5%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $5,500,000 (3.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $4,500,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.42%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $13,500,000 (1.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.54%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $12,500,000 (1.54%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $4,500,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.27%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $4,500,000 (4.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.82%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $1,500,000 (12.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.54%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $12,500,000 (1.54%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.83%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $10,500,000 (1.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.33%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $14,500,000 (1.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.28%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $15,000,000 (1.28%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.28% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.6%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $12,000,000 (1.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $14,000,000 (1.37%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.96%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $6,500,000 (2.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.56%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $7,500,000 (2.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $192,308
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.26%)
   Check 1: $192,308 @ $8,500,000 (2.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.26% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$5,000,000
Investments
26
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
0%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1