Test by @brianmcc

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
86.2%
3x
33.1%
10x
6.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.33
Median
2.12
Top Quartile
3.51

Investments

Initial Check
$1.1M
Follow-on
$535.7K
Blended Cost Basis
$8.9M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
21.72%
Avg At Exit
29.26%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 9 - $1,136,263,324 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $16,659,702
Return: $36,736,455 (own at exit: 3.23%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $12,500,000 (8.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $31,648,115 (2.79% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $49,000,000 (1.09%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,088,339 (0.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $48,473,074 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $4,952,569
Return: $10,159,561 (own at exit: 20.96%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $3,500,000 (30.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,417,625 (19.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $28,000,000 (1.91%)
   Check 2 Returns: $741,934 (1.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $47,262,351 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $18,641,473
Return: $2,687,495 (own at exit: 5.69%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $14,500,000 (7.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,216,441 (4.69% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $43,000,000 (1.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $471,053 (1% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.25%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $5,000,000 (21.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.12%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $10,500,000 (10.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.35%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $6,500,000 (16.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 35.42%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $3,000,000 (35.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.18%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $9,500,000 (11.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.24%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $11,500,000 (9.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.18%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $7,000,000 (15.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.12%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $10,500,000 (10.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.24%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $11,500,000 (9.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.25%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $5,000,000 (21.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 35.42%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $3,000,000 (35.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.08%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $15,000,000 (7.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.59%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $14,000,000 (7.59%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.59% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.24%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $11,500,000 (9.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.25%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $5,000,000 (21.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 35.42%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $3,000,000 (35.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 26.56%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $4,000,000 (26.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (26.56% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 4 - $1,118,471,524 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $17,807,529
Return: $33,905,268 (own at exit: 3.03%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $13,500,000 (7.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $28,844,966 (2.58% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $48,500,000 (1.1%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,060,301 (0.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $966,201,475 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $14,381,173
Return: $37,253,475 (own at exit: 3.86%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $12,500,000 (8.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $26,911,416 (2.79% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $20,500,000 (2.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $10,342,058 (1.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $81,401,080 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $16,270,536
Return: $4,231,685 (own at exit: 5.2%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $12,500,000 (8.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,542,574 (4.35% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $40,500,000 (1.32%)
   Check 2 Returns: $689,109 (0.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $59,665,874 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $8,644,131
Return: $7,264,812 (own at exit: 12.18%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $6,500,000 (16.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,241,968 (10.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $25,000,000 (2.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,022,843 (1.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $40,875,317 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,598,214
Blended Cost Basis: $9,053,615
Return: $4,703,455 (own at exit: 11.51%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $6,500,000 (16.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,276,186 (10.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $535,714 @ $41,000,000 (1.31%)
   Check 2 Returns: $427,268 (1.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 26.56%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $4,000,000 (26.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (26.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.18%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $7,000,000 (15.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.08%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $15,000,000 (7.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 70.83%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $1,500,000 (70.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (70.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.33%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $14,500,000 (7.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 21.25%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $5,000,000 (21.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (21.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 30.36%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $3,500,000 (30.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (30.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.71%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $6,000,000 (17.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.62%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $10,000,000 (10.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 23.61%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $4,500,000 (23.61%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (23.61% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.12%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $10,500,000 (10.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.71%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $6,000,000 (17.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.5%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $12,500,000 (8.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.62%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $10,000,000 (10.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,062,500
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $1,062,500 @ $8,500,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
15%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1