Unstoppable by @Tawheed

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
90%
3x
26.2%
10x
2%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.33
Median
1.90
Top Quartile
3.06

Investments

Initial Check
$2.5M
Follow-on
$7.1M
Blended Cost Basis
$10.5M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
51.34%
Avg At Exit
78.67%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 6 - $585,447,909 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $27,876,174
Return: $92,159,725 (own at exit: 15.74%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $13,000,000 (19.23%)
   Check 1 Returns: $46,115,281 (7.88% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $46,500,000 (15.36%)
   Check 2 Returns: $46,044,443 (7.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $55,268,486 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $18,152,146
Return: $21,478,198 (own at exit: 38.86%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $11,000,000 (22.73%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,039,052 (14.55% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $23,500,000 (30.4%)
   Check 2 Returns: $13,439,145 (24.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $50,299,177 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $12,326,087
Return: $27,008,719 (own at exit: 53.7%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $4,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $17,884,151 (35.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $31,500,000 (22.68%)
   Check 2 Returns: $9,124,567 (18.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $47,273,714 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $27,269,765
Return: $11,860,401 (own at exit: 25.09%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $12,500,000 (20%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,051,035 (12.8% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $46,500,000 (15.36%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,809,365 (12.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $41,918,394 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $22,229,323
Return: $12,950,132 (own at exit: 30.89%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $10,500,000 (23.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,387,564 (15.24% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $36,500,000 (19.57%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,562,566 (15.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 55.56%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $4,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (55.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 27.78%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $9,000,000 (27.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (27.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.86%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $14,000,000 (17.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $15,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 23.81%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $10,500,000 (23.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (23.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 19.23%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $13,000,000 (19.23%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (19.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 41.67%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $6,000,000 (41.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (41.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $15,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 31.25%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $8,000,000 (31.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (31.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 23.81%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $10,500,000 (23.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (23.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 71.43%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $3,500,000 (71.43%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (71.43% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 100%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $2,500,000 (100%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (100% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 23.81%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $10,500,000 (23.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (23.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 35.71%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $7,000,000 (35.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $7,500,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 16 - $1,152,891,882 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $22,955,466
Return: $174,755,195 (own at exit: 15.16%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $10,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $94,444,902 (8.19% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $42,000,000 (17.01%)
   Check 2 Returns: $80,310,291 (6.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $52,991,942 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $16,259,124
Return: $22,316,260 (own at exit: 42.11%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $7,500,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $11,304,947 (21.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $27,500,000 (25.97%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,011,312 (20.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $50,861,358 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $12,275,862
Return: $26,875,696 (own at exit: 52.84%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $4,000,000 (62.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $20,344,543 (40% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $44,500,000 (16.05%)
   Check 2 Returns: $6,531,153 (12.84% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $48,609,871 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $9,642,857
Blended Cost Basis: $20,903,226
Return: $16,087,552 (own at exit: 33.1%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $10,500,000 (23.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,407,218 (15.24% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $7,142,857 @ $32,000,000 (22.32%)
   Check 2 Returns: $8,680,334 (17.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 250%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $1,000,000 (250%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (250% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 38.46%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $6,500,000 (38.46%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (38.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 100%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $2,500,000 (100%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (100% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 83.33%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $3,000,000 (83.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (83.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $12,500,000 (20%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 33.33%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $7,500,000 (33.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (33.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.24%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $14,500,000 (17.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 62.5%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $4,000,000 (62.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (62.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.52%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $13,500,000 (18.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 29.41%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $8,500,000 (29.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (29.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.52%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $13,500,000 (18.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 35.71%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $7,000,000 (35.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (35.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 29.41%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $8,500,000 (29.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (29.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20.83%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $12,000,000 (20.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.24%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $14,500,000 (17.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $2,500,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 55.56%)
   Check 1: $2,500,000 @ $4,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (55.56% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$100,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1