50% reserve, very selective by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
95.4%
3x
25.8%
10x
2.6%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.53
Median
2.16
Top Quartile
3.06

Investments

Initial Check
$416.7K
Follow-on
$1.8M
Blended Cost Basis
$10.8M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
8.58%
Avg At Exit
14.52%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 21 - $1,179,465,384 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $29,508,949
Return: $32,555,734 (own at exit: 2.76%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $11,500,000 (3.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $14,003,160 (1.19% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $46,500,000 (3.84%)
   Check 2 Returns: $18,552,573 (1.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $115,333,850 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $28,329,466
Return: $5,123,286 (own at exit: 4.44%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $10,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,460,455 (2.13% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $49,500,000 (3.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,662,830 (2.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $57,307,423 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $22,089,552
Return: $4,093,387 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,910,247 (3.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $37,500,000 (4.76%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,183,139 (3.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $51,402,714 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $21,740,113
Return: $3,638,672 (own at exit: 7.08%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $6,500,000 (6.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,108,829 (4.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $48,000,000 (3.72%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,529,842 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $50,011,215 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $24,647,779
Return: $3,352,695 (own at exit: 6.7%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $15,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $889,088 (1.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $29,000,000 (6.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,463,606 (4.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $49,212,895 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $19,700,683
Return: $4,175,024 (own at exit: 8.48%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $14,500,000 (2.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $905,064 (1.84% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $21,500,000 (8.31%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,269,959 (6.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $46,349,170 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $23,450,704
Return: $3,276,322 (own at exit: 7.07%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $15,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $823,985 (1.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $27,000,000 (6.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,452,337 (5.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $45,459,787 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $12,837,971
Return: $5,481,315 (own at exit: 12.06%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $4,000,000 (10.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,030,652 (6.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $26,500,000 (6.74%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,450,662 (5.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.42%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $4,000,000 (10.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.58%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $5,500,000 (7.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $2,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.63%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $9,000,000 (4.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.62%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $11,500,000 (3.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.26%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $4,500,000 (9.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 41.67%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $1,000,000 (41.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (41.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.09%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $13,500,000 (3.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $3,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.21%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $13,000,000 (3.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.62%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $11,500,000 (3.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.21%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $6,000,000 (6.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $2,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.97%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $10,500,000 (3.97%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $7,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.21%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $14,000,000 (2.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $10,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20.83%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $2,000,000 (20.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.58%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $5,500,000 (7.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 27.78%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $1,500,000 (27.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (27.78% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 20 - $1,015,147,945 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $25,991,736
Return: $31,156,227 (own at exit: 3.07%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,500,000 (4.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,306,062 (1.61% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $50,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 2 Returns: $14,850,164 (1.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $1,012,973,152 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $26,737,226
Return: $30,335,208 (own at exit: 2.99%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $9,000,000 (4.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $15,367,177 (1.52% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $49,500,000 (3.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $14,968,030 (1.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $92,113,955 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $25,483,233
Return: $4,549,129 (own at exit: 4.94%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $9,000,000 (4.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,183,441 (2.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $44,500,000 (4.01%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,365,687 (2.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $89,406,459 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $24,227,758
Return: $4,605,451 (own at exit: 5.15%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,384,172 (2.67% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $46,000,000 (3.88%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,221,278 (2.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $49,669,818 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $27,553,810
Return: $2,900,151 (own at exit: 5.84%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $12,000,000 (3.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,103,773 (2.22% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $39,500,000 (4.52%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,796,376 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $45,596,268 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $24,449,912
Return: $2,905,780 (own at exit: 6.37%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,519,875 (3.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $47,000,000 (3.8%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,385,904 (3.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $44,146,708 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,202,381
Blended Cost Basis: $21,672,300
Return: $3,386,046 (own at exit: 7.67%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $14,500,000 (2.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $811,893 (1.84% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,785,714 @ $24,500,000 (7.29%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,574,152 (5.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $12,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.47%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $12,000,000 (3.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $2,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $3,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.41%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $6,500,000 (6.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.39%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $9,500,000 (4.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.17%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $10,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.42%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $4,000,000 (10.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $12,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.62%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $11,500,000 (3.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $6,000,000 (6.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $3,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.21%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $14,000,000 (2.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.26%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $4,500,000 (9.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $5,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $7,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 27.78%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $1,500,000 (27.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (27.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.62%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $11,500,000 (3.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.42%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $4,000,000 (10.42%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.21%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $8,000,000 (5.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $14,000,000 (2.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $416,667
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.41%)
   Check 1: $416,667 @ $6,500,000 (6.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.41% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
30
Reserve
50%
Follow-on rate
20%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1