No reserve by @pt

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
90.3%
3x
35.9%
10x
3.3%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.56
Median
2.43
Top Quartile
3.66

Investments

Initial Check
$833.3K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$8.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
17.16%
Avg At Exit
16.46%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 6 - $1,196,266,238 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $26,132,835 (own at exit: 2.18%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $12,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $26,132,834 (2.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $1,038,876,930 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $19,564,321 (own at exit: 1.88%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $14,500,000 (5.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $19,564,321 (1.88% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $47,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $104,557,107 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $3,304,521 (own at exit: 3.16%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $13,500,000 (6.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,304,520 (3.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $55,692,964 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $5,940,583 (own at exit: 10.67%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,940,582 (10.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $47,327,106 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $4,589,295 (own at exit: 9.7%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,500,000 (15.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,589,295 (9.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $42,515,203 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $2,386,818 (own at exit: 5.61%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $9,500,000 (8.77%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,386,818 (5.61% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $47,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $40,922,585 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $1,984,125 (own at exit: 4.85%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $11,000,000 (7.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,984,125 (4.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $12,000,000 (6.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.67%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $12,500,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.75%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $14,500,000 (5.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 55.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $1,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (55.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 27.78%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $3,000,000 (27.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (27.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.17%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $13,500,000 (6.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.17%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $13,500,000 (6.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.15%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,500,000 (15.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.58%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $11,000,000 (7.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.17%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $13,500,000 (6.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.15%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,500,000 (15.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.15%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,500,000 (15.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $6,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $10,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.26%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $9,000,000 (9.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $12,000,000 (6.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.8%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $8,500,000 (9.8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.8% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.82%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $6,500,000 (12.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 83.33%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $1,000,000 (83.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (83.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $6,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.94%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $12,000,000 (6.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.82%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $6,500,000 (12.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $7,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 24 - $1,128,954,979 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $41,103,996 (own at exit: 3.64%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $7,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $41,103,996 (3.64% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $44,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $974,329,933 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $20,465,925 (own at exit: 2.1%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $13,000,000 (6.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $20,465,925 (2.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $39,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $475,038,323 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $11,182,511 (own at exit: 2.35%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $14,500,000 (5.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $11,182,511 (2.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $88,820,963 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $12,632,315 (own at exit: 14.22%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $3,000,000 (27.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $12,632,314 (14.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $54,009,805 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $4,115,033 (own at exit: 7.62%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $7,000,000 (11.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,115,032 (7.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $53,349,047 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $1,896,855 (own at exit: 3.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $15,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,896,854 (3.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $48,689,572 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $3,462,370 (own at exit: 7.11%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $7,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,462,369 (7.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $42,801,958 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $1,630,551 (own at exit: 3.81%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $14,000,000 (5.95%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,630,550 (3.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $15,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $15,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 18.52%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $4,500,000 (18.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (18.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.94%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $10,500,000 (7.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 55.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $1,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (55.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $10,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 20.83%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $4,000,000 (20.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (20.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $10,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 83.33%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $1,000,000 (83.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (83.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $5,000,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.11%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $7,500,000 (11.11%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 27.78%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $3,000,000 (27.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (27.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $15,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 41.67%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $2,000,000 (41.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (41.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $6,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 55.56%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $1,500,000 (55.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (55.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.9%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $7,000,000 (11.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.41%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $13,000,000 (6.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.26%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $9,000,000 (9.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 23.81%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $3,500,000 (23.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (23.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $833,333
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.89%)
   Check 1: $833,333 @ $6,000,000 (13.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.89% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
30
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
0%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1