AI fund, 33% reserve, 20% follow-on rate by @benparr

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
94.7%
3x
33%
10x
4.5%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.51
Median
2.15
Top Quartile
3.89

Investments

Initial Check
$697.9K
Follow-on
$8.2M
Blended Cost Basis
$10.7M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
14.61%
Avg At Exit
26.87%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 4 - $1,198,189,953 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $23,827,657 (own at exit: 1.99%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $11,500,000 (6.07%)
   Check 1 Returns: $23,827,656 (1.99% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $85,040,219 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $8,947,917
Blended Cost Basis: $38,312,628
Return: $12,020,505 (own at exit: 14.14%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $11,000,000 (6.34%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,762,518 (3.25% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,250,000 @ $48,500,000 (17.01%)
   Check 2 Returns: $9,257,986 (10.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $82,563,646 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $2,269,442 (own at exit: 2.75%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $13,000,000 (5.37%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,269,441 (2.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $80,126,387 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $8,947,917
Blended Cost Basis: $30,152,106
Return: $14,263,684 (own at exit: 17.8%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $7,500,000 (9.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,817,577 (4.76% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,250,000 @ $40,500,000 (20.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $10,446,106 (13.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $59,174,060 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $6,607,770 (own at exit: 11.17%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $4,000,000 (17.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,607,770 (11.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $53,599,334 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $4,352,916 (own at exit: 8.12%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $5,500,000 (12.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,352,915 (8.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $53,436,902 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $1,591,232 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $15,000,000 (4.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,591,232 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $46,736,125 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $2,197,418 (own at exit: 4.7%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $9,500,000 (7.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,197,417 (4.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $43,723,439 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $2,603,974 (own at exit: 5.96%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $7,500,000 (9.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,603,973 (5.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $40,616,459 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $6,047,339 (own at exit: 14.89%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $3,000,000 (23.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,047,339 (14.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.58%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $12,500,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.31%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $7,500,000 (9.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 69.79%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $1,000,000 (69.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (69.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 13.96%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $5,000,000 (13.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (13.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.97%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $7,000,000 (9.97%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.37%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $13,000,000 (5.37%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.45%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $4,000,000 (17.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.69%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $5,500,000 (12.69%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.07%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $11,500,000 (6.07%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.34%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $11,000,000 (6.34%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.34% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.35%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $9,500,000 (7.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 69.79%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $1,000,000 (69.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (69.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.81%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $14,500,000 (4.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 69.79%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $1,000,000 (69.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (69.79% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 0 - $1,090,098,668 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $29,329,212 (own at exit: 2.69%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $8,500,000 (8.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $29,329,211 (2.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $802,433,341 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $8,947,917
Blended Cost Basis: $33,125,826
Return: $85,111,613 (own at exit: 10.61%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $12,500,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $14,680,892 (1.83% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,250,000 @ $38,500,000 (21.43%)
   Check 2 Returns: $70,430,720 (8.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $56,922,778 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $1,695,034 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $15,000,000 (4.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,695,033 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $52,999,874 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $2,785,091 (own at exit: 5.25%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $8,500,000 (8.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,785,091 (5.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $43,863,657 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $8,947,917
Blended Cost Basis: $21,955,583
Return: $13,756,942 (own at exit: 31.36%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $9,000,000 (7.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,176,937 (4.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $8,250,000 @ $25,000,000 (33%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,580,005 (26.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.65%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $10,500,000 (6.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.31%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $7,500,000 (9.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.63%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $6,000,000 (11.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (11.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 34.9%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $2,000,000 (34.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (34.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.31%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $7,500,000 (9.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.45%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $4,000,000 (17.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 34.9%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $2,000,000 (34.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (34.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.72%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $8,000,000 (8.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 34.9%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $2,000,000 (34.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (34.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.17%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $13,500,000 (5.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.72%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $8,000,000 (8.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 19.94%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $3,500,000 (19.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (19.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 15.51%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $4,500,000 (15.51%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (15.51% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.35%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $9,500,000 (7.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 69.79%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $1,000,000 (69.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (69.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 19.94%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $3,500,000 (19.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (19.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 17.45%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $4,000,000 (17.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (17.45% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.65%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $15,000,000 (4.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $697,917
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.34%)
   Check 1: $697,917 @ $11,000,000 (6.34%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.34% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
24
Reserve
33%
Follow-on rate
0%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1