25m, 33% reserve, 20% follow-on by @benparr

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
96.1%
3x
55.7%
10x
15.8%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
2.00
Median
3.41
Top Quartile
6.83

Investments

Initial Check
$670K
Follow-on
$1.4M
Blended Cost Basis
$13.4M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
7.66%
Avg At Exit
10.47%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 21 - $1,169,993,086 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,513,193
Return: $51,484,496 (own at exit: 4.4%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $16,000,000 (4.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $25,084,651 (2.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $39,000,000 (3.53%)
   Check 2 Returns: $26,399,843 (2.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $86,072,523 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,600,975
Return: $8,021,139 (own at exit: 9.32%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,766,859 (6.7% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $52,500,000 (2.62%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,254,280 (2.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $51,569,187 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $26,285,618
Return: $3,551,357 (own at exit: 6.89%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,842,738 (3.57% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $41,500,000 (3.31%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,708,617 (3.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $44,405,660 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,582,491
Return: $7,258,813 (own at exit: 16.35%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $4,500,000 (14.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,289,207 (11.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $31,000,000 (4.44%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,969,605 (4.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $11,600,427 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $597,868 (own at exit: 5.15%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $597,868 (5.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $10,467,886 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $1,558,552 (own at exit: 14.89%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $4,500,000 (14.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,558,551 (14.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $9,738,100 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $652,453 (own at exit: 6.7%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $652,452 (6.7% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $9,651,886 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $445,984 (own at exit: 4.62%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,500,000 (4.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $445,983 (4.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $9,131,377 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $1,748,007 (own at exit: 19.14%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $3,500,000 (19.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,748,006 (19.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $9,068,603 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $1,735,990 (own at exit: 19.14%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $3,500,000 (19.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,735,989 (19.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $8,363,104 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $1,400,820 (own at exit: 16.75%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $4,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,400,819 (16.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $5,827,413 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $223,107 (own at exit: 3.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $17,500,000 (3.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $223,106 (3.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $5,512,995 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $246,247 (own at exit: 4.47%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $246,247 (4.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $5,484,249 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $459,306 (own at exit: 8.38%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $459,305 (8.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $5,119,149 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,961,419
Return: $315,147 (own at exit: 6.16%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $17,000,000 (3.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $82,638 (1.61% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $15,500,000 (8.87%)
   Check 2 Returns: $232,508 (4.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $4,967,817 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,889,465
Return: $440,756 (own at exit: 8.87%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $4,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $340,832 (6.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $35,000,000 (3.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $99,924 (2.01% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $4,469,381 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $199,632 (own at exit: 4.47%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $199,632 (4.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $4,424,731 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,500,000
Return: $160,247 (own at exit: 3.62%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $18,500,000 (3.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $160,247 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $4,301,603 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $250,615 (own at exit: 5.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,500,000 (5.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $250,615 (5.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $4,190,272 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $155,971 (own at exit: 3.72%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $18,000,000 (3.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $155,971 (3.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.41%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $19,500,000 (3.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.03%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,500,000 (4.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.2%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,500,000 (5.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,967,093
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.7%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $5,000,000 (13.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.49% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $58,000,000 (2.37%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.21% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 18 - $5,577,235,014 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $33,059,067
Return: $157,018,328 (own at exit: 2.82%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $19,500,000 (3.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $78,490,859 (1.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $50,000,000 (2.75%)
   Check 2 Returns: $78,527,468 (1.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $210,514,531 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,975,438
Return: $15,494,912 (own at exit: 7.36%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,500,000 (7.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $10,619,838 (5.04% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $47,500,000 (2.89%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,875,073 (2.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $104,982,424 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,755,728
Return: $7,968,916 (own at exit: 7.59%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $20,000,000 (3.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,813,528 (2.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $28,000,000 (4.91%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,155,386 (4.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $70,431,741 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,925,508
Return: $5,015,062 (own at exit: 7.12%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,761,246 (3.92% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $22,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,253,815 (3.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $52,202,339 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,421,617
Return: $7,719,805 (own at exit: 14.79%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,497,556 (6.7% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $17,000,000 (8.09%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,222,247 (8.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $42,517,586 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,963,863
Return: $12,680,100 (own at exit: 29.82%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $3,000,000 (22.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,596,475 (17.87% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $11,500,000 (11.96%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,083,624 (11.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $42,465,370 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $2,045,000
Blended Cost Basis: $24,478,803
Return: $3,191,980 (own at exit: 7.52%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $16,000,000 (4.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,422,589 (3.35% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,375,000 @ $33,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,769,390 (4.17% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $10,574,605 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $1,012,141 (own at exit: 9.57%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,012,140 (9.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $10,187,302 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $390,028 (own at exit: 3.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $17,500,000 (3.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $390,028 (3.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $10,027,186 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $1,679,554 (own at exit: 16.75%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $4,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,679,553 (16.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $9,568,374 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $582,801 (own at exit: 6.09%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $582,800 (6.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $5,742,239 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $525,285 (own at exit: 9.15%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $3,000,000 (22.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $525,284 (9.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $5,553,744 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $391,685 (own at exit: 7.05%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $9,500,000 (7.05%)
   Check 1 Returns: $391,685 (7.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $5,454,106 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $317,761 (own at exit: 5.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,500,000 (5.83%)
   Check 1 Returns: $317,760 (5.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $5,219,447 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $269,002 (own at exit: 5.15%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $269,002 (5.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $4,721,858 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $243,357 (own at exit: 5.15%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $13,000,000 (5.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $243,357 (5.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $4,586,456 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $279,357 (own at exit: 6.09%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $11,000,000 (6.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $279,356 (6.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $4,024,882 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $73,637 (own at exit: 1.83%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $15,000,000 (4.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $73,637 (1.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.23%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $8,500,000 (7.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.74%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.66%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $7,500,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.66% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.2%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,500,000 (5.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.74%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $10,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.2%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $12,500,000 (5.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $670,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.96%)
   Check 1: $670,000 @ $14,000,000 (4.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.96% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
33%
Follow-on rate
20%
Follow-on Picking
Perfect Picking

Fork this model

AI Market (Pre-seed and Seed)

Hypothetical market model for AI in 2023 -- pre-seed and seed

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$3-20M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-60M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.001% $100B 5
0.1% $50B 6
0.1% $10B 6
0.5% $5B 5
2% $1B 4
3% $250M 3
4% $100M 2
5% $75M 5
10% $50M 2
15% $10M 1
20% $5M 1
15% $5M 5
25.299% $0 5