| By Median TVPI | 3.41 | 25m, 33% reserve, 20% follow-on |
| By Chance of 10x TVPI | 16% | 25m, 33% reserve, 20% follow-on |
| By Chance of 3x TVPI | 56% | 25m, 33% reserve, 20% follow-on |
Hypothetical market model for AI in 2023 -- pre-seed and seed
The chance that any specific investment will exit at a valuation.
| Probability | Exit | Rounds |
|---|---|---|
| 0.001% | $100B | 5 |
| 0.1% | $50B | 6 |
| 0.1% | $10B | 6 |
| 0.5% | $5B | 5 |
| 2% | $1B | 4 |
| 3% | $250M | 3 |
| 4% | $100M | 2 |
| 5% | $75M | 5 |
| 10% | $50M | 2 |
| 15% | $10M | 1 |
| 20% | $5M | 1 |
| 15% | $5M | 5 |
| 25.299% | $0 | 5 |