20% reserve, 15% follow-on by @benparr

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
94.3%
3x
48.3%
10x
11%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.74
Median
2.88
Top Quartile
5.56

Investments

Initial Check
$800K
Follow-on
$1.2M
Blended Cost Basis
$13.9M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
9.06%
Avg At Exit
9.92%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Median Fund Portfolio

Company 15 - $1,167,207,023 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,735,052
Return: $60,063,278 (own at exit: 5.15%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $11,500,000 (6.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $41,572,869 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $50,500,000 (2.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $18,490,408 (1.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $87,140,262 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,500,000
Return: $3,379,986 (own at exit: 3.88%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $16,500,000 (4.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,379,985 (3.88% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $78,542,936 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,610,701
Return: $2,664,039 (own at exit: 3.39%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $20,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,286,847 (1.64% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $36,500,000 (3.42%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,377,191 (1.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $75,461,871 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $1,705,334 (own at exit: 2.26%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $14,500,000 (5.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,705,334 (2.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $68,605,256 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,000,000
Return: $1,322,386 (own at exit: 1.93%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $17,000,000 (4.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,322,386 (1.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $53,648,588 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $2,543,340 (own at exit: 4.74%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,543,340 (4.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $51,195,060 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $2,849,116 (own at exit: 5.57%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $11,500,000 (6.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,849,116 (5.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $8,729,863 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $367,573 (own at exit: 4.21%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $19,000,000 (4.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $367,573 (4.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $8,165,830 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $483,901 (own at exit: 5.93%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $13,500,000 (5.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $483,901 (5.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $5,896,489 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $325,324 (own at exit: 5.52%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $14,500,000 (5.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $325,323 (5.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $5,675,448 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $238,966 (own at exit: 4.21%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $19,000,000 (4.21%)
   Check 1 Returns: $238,966 (4.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $5,169,223 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,000,000
Return: $99,638 (own at exit: 1.93%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $17,000,000 (4.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $99,638 (1.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $4,720,941 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $444,324 (own at exit: 9.41%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $8,500,000 (9.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $444,323 (9.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $4,583,500 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $375,480 (own at exit: 8.19%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $4,000,000 (20%)
   Check 1 Returns: $375,480 (8.19% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $4,433,125 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $74,495 (own at exit: 1.68%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $19,500,000 (4.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $74,494 (1.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $4,186,616 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $1,116,431 (own at exit: 26.67%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $3,000,000 (26.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,116,431 (26.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $4,164,392 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $170,847 (own at exit: 4.1%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $19,500,000 (4.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $170,846 (4.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $4,047,713 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $241,155 (own at exit: 5.96%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $5,500,000 (14.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $241,155 (5.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,336,735
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.24%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $12,000,000 (6.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.73% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $42,500,000 (2.94%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.51% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,693,745
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.3%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $3,500,000 (22.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.36% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $33,000,000 (3.79%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,905,181
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.42%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $11,500,000 (6.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.85% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $14,000,000 (8.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (4.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.86%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $8,500,000 (9.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.86%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $8,500,000 (9.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.64%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $20,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.52%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $13,000,000 (6.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.52% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

show/hide details

Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 12 - $4,534,659,951 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,000,000
Return: $87,406,904 (own at exit: 1.93%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $17,000,000 (4.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $87,406,904 (1.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $1,038,107,289 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $27,724,979
Return: $42,872,190 (own at exit: 4.13%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $17,000,000 (4.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $25,012,279 (2.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $46,500,000 (2.69%)
   Check 2 Returns: $17,859,910 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $79,765,947 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $21,225,664
Return: $3,609,293 (own at exit: 4.52%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $19,500,000 (4.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,340,395 (1.68% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $22,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,268,898 (2.84% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $70,673,519 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,293,991
Return: $5,919,469 (own at exit: 8.38%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $4,500,000 (17.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,146,288 (7.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $58,500,000 (2.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $773,180 (1.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $48,824,540 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $3,471,967 (own at exit: 7.11%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $9,000,000 (8.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,471,967 (7.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $43,013,649 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $5,005,225 (own at exit: 11.64%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $5,500,000 (14.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,005,224 (11.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $43,000,338 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $1,897,946 (own at exit: 4.41%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $14,500,000 (5.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,897,945 (4.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $42,418,053 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,000,000
Return: $1,357,378 (own at exit: 3.2%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $20,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,357,377 (3.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $11,318,851 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,000,000
Return: $565,943 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $16,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $565,942 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $11,133,521 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,500,000
Return: $481,450 (own at exit: 4.32%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $18,500,000 (4.32%)
   Check 1 Returns: $481,449 (4.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $10,637,599 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $486,290 (own at exit: 4.57%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $17,500,000 (4.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $486,290 (4.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $8,068,879 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $2,151,701 (own at exit: 26.67%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $3,000,000 (26.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,151,701 (26.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $5,800,737 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $1,325,883 (own at exit: 22.86%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $3,500,000 (22.86%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,325,882 (22.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $5,500,145 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $225,647 (own at exit: 4.1%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $19,500,000 (4.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $225,646 (4.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $4,884,208 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $246,224 (own at exit: 5.04%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $6,500,000 (12.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $246,224 (5.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $4,846,569 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $267,397 (own at exit: 5.52%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $14,500,000 (5.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $267,396 (5.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $4,490,205 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $113,181 (own at exit: 2.52%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $13,000,000 (6.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $113,180 (2.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $4,487,198 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $16,000,000
Return: $224,360 (own at exit: 5%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $16,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $224,359 (5% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $4,189,595 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $186,204 (own at exit: 4.44%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $18,000,000 (4.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $186,204 (4.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $32,126,866
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.86%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $20,000,000 (4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.64% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $52,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $2,050,000
Blended Cost Basis: $20,034,904
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.42%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $10,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $1,250,000 @ $56,000,000 (2.23%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.62%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $12,500,000 (6.4%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.87%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $17,500,000 (4.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.87% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.28%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $10,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.28% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $800,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.96%)
   Check 1: $800,000 @ $5,500,000 (14.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.96% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
20%
Follow-on rate
15%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

Fork this model

AI Market (Pre-seed and Seed)

Hypothetical market model for AI in 2023 -- pre-seed and seed

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$3-20M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-60M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.001% $100B 5
0.1% $50B 6
0.1% $10B 6
0.5% $5B 5
2% $1B 4
3% $250M 3
4% $100M 2
5% $75M 5
10% $50M 2
15% $10M 1
20% $5M 1
15% $5M 5
25.299% $0 5