$50m, 33% reserve, 25% follow-on by @benparr

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
91.3%
3x
45.9%
10x
13.3%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.61
Median
2.77
Top Quartile
5.40

Investments

Initial Check
$1.3M
Follow-on
$2.4M
Blended Cost Basis
$14.1M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
15.26%
Avg At Exit
17.11%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 13 - $1,113,109,300 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $39,163,181 (own at exit: 3.52%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $19,500,000 (6.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $39,163,180 (3.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $1,005,945,554 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $30,754,625
Return: $67,808,984 (own at exit: 6.74%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $18,000,000 (7.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $38,342,173 (3.81% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $51,500,000 (4.58%)
   Check 2 Returns: $29,466,810 (2.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $83,824,195 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $4,608,181 (own at exit: 5.5%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $19,500,000 (6.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,608,181 (5.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $76,457,662 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $17,639,727
Return: $6,893,348 (own at exit: 9.02%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $8,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,245,607 (6.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $56,000,000 (4.21%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,647,740 (2.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $76,198,867 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $17,852,836
Return: $6,917,625 (own at exit: 9.08%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $9,000,000 (14.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,646,979 (6.1% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $40,500,000 (5.82%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,270,645 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $52,653,241 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $14,300,368
Return: $11,441,761 (own at exit: 21.73%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $6,500,000 (20.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,683,734 (16.49% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $45,000,000 (5.24%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,758,026 (5.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $11,149,318 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $1,867,511 (own at exit: 16.75%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $8,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,867,510 (16.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $9,963,073 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $2,225,086 (own at exit: 22.33%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $6,000,000 (22.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,225,086 (22.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $5,723,239 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $730,394 (own at exit: 12.76%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $10,500,000 (12.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $730,394 (12.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $5,702,734 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $527,011 (own at exit: 9.24%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $14,500,000 (9.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $527,011 (9.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $5,485,962 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $10,678,641
Return: $883,903 (own at exit: 16.11%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $8,500,000 (15.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $354,240 (6.46% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $12,500,000 (18.86%)
   Check 2 Returns: $529,661 (9.65% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $5,336,799 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $9,236,801
Return: $930,961 (own at exit: 17.44%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $4,500,000 (29.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $650,928 (12.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $23,000,000 (10.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $280,032 (5.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $5,009,660 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $839,118 (own at exit: 16.75%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $8,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $839,118 (16.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $4,452,406 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $128,619 (own at exit: 2.89%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $19,000,000 (7.05%)
   Check 1 Returns: $128,619 (2.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $4,326,042 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $14,060,118
Return: $491,099 (own at exit: 11.35%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $6,500,000 (20.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $365,293 (8.44% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $41,500,000 (5.68%)
   Check 2 Returns: $125,805 (2.91% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $4,275,912 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $409,266 (own at exit: 9.57%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $14,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $409,265 (9.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $4,143,204 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $1,850,631 (own at exit: 44.67%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $3,000,000 (44.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,850,630 (44.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.99%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $11,000,000 (12.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.99% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $15,010,025
Return: $0 (own at exit: 11.75%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $16,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $14,500,000 (16.26%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (8.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10.98%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $5,000,000 (26.8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.54%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $15,500,000 (8.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.54% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.84%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $7,000,000 (19.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.84% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.98%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $5,500,000 (24.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.98%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $5,500,000 (24.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.39%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $12,500,000 (10.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.39% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 17 - $5,822,668,472 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $228,275,222 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $14,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $228,275,222 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $265,431,141 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $24,094,026
Return: $28,368,134 (own at exit: 10.69%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $13,500,000 (9.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $16,861,758 (6.35% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $43,500,000 (5.42%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,506,374 (4.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $200,095,343 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $9,805,815 (own at exit: 4.9%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $17,500,000 (7.66%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,805,815 (4.9% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $89,388,142 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $13,620,565
Return: $10,378,595 (own at exit: 11.61%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $6,000,000 (22.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,176,988 (9.15% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $49,000,000 (4.81%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,201,606 (2.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $89,227,509 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $2,720,765 (own at exit: 3.05%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $18,000,000 (7.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,720,764 (3.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $88,026,780 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $14,600,846
Return: $9,902,459 (own at exit: 11.25%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $8,000,000 (16.75%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,039,341 (6.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $27,500,000 (8.57%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,863,118 (4.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $82,071,833 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $10,737,803
Return: $27,158,466 (own at exit: 33.09%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $20,000,000 (6.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,399,050 (5.36% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $8,500,000 (27.73%)
   Check 2 Returns: $22,759,415 (27.73% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $64,409,344 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $7,205,992
Return: $13,973,649 (own at exit: 21.7%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $3,000,000 (44.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $11,783,990 (18.3% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $35,500,000 (6.64%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,189,658 (3.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $61,164,140 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $2,486,726 (own at exit: 4.07%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $13,500,000 (9.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,486,725 (4.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $45,436,410 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $8,335,689
Return: $18,799,495 (own at exit: 41.38%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $9,000,000 (14.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,411,981 (11.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $8,000,000 (29.46%)
   Check 2 Returns: $13,387,513 (29.46% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $10,145,642 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $1,045,782 (own at exit: 10.31%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $13,000,000 (10.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,045,781 (10.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $5,794,426 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $2,218,437 (own at exit: 38.29%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $3,500,000 (38.29%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,218,437 (38.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $5,745,247 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $10,129,667
Return: $1,012,976 (own at exit: 17.63%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $13,000,000 (10.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $242,566 (4.22% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $9,000,000 (26.19%)
   Check 2 Returns: $770,410 (13.41% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $5,444,599 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $858,325 (own at exit: 15.76%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $8,500,000 (15.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $858,325 (15.76% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $5,444,395 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $271,658 (own at exit: 4.99%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $11,000,000 (12.18%)
   Check 1 Returns: $271,657 (4.99% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $5,317,592 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $166,779 (own at exit: 3.14%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $17,500,000 (7.66%)
   Check 1 Returns: $166,779 (3.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $5,061,725 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $452,181 (own at exit: 8.93%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $15,000,000 (8.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $452,180 (8.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $4,856,194 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $333,708 (own at exit: 6.87%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $19,500,000 (6.87%)
   Check 1 Returns: $333,707 (6.87% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $4,800,826 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $18,500,000
Return: $142,432 (own at exit: 2.97%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $18,500,000 (7.24%)
   Check 1 Returns: $142,432 (2.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $4,383,588 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $419,572 (own at exit: 9.57%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $14,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $419,572 (9.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $4,295,208 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $471,497 (own at exit: 10.98%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $5,000,000 (26.8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $471,497 (10.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.98%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $5,500,000 (24.36%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (9.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $3,697,143
Blended Cost Basis: $20,138,541
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.59%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $17,000,000 (7.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.23% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,357,143 @ $22,500,000 (10.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (5.36% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.92%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $14,000,000 (9.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,340,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.07%)
   Check 1: $1,340,000 @ $13,500,000 (9.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.07% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$50,000,000
Investments
25
Reserve
33%
Follow-on rate
25%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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AI Market (Pre-seed and Seed)

Hypothetical market model for AI in 2023 -- pre-seed and seed

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$3-20M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-60M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.001% $100B 5
0.1% $50B 6
0.1% $10B 6
0.5% $5B 5
2% $1B 4
3% $250M 3
4% $100M 2
5% $75M 5
10% $50M 2
15% $10M 1
20% $5M 1
15% $5M 5
25.299% $0 5