Test by @benparr

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
95.8%
3x
53.4%
10x
12.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
2.00
Median
3.25
Top Quartile
5.68

Investments

Initial Check
$418.8K
Follow-on
$589.3K
Blended Cost Basis
$13.6M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
4.79%
Avg At Exit
5.36%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 39 - $5,687,030,393 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $54,191,081 (own at exit: 0.95%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $18,000,000 (2.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $54,191,080 (0.95% ownership @ exit)

Company 37 - $215,362,224 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $22,946,494
Return: $6,414,320 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $12,500,000 (3.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,617,366 (2.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $56,500,000 (1.04%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,796,954 (0.83% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $82,371,574 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $10,693,271
Return: $3,333,493 (own at exit: 4.05%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $5,500,000 (7.61%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,568,794 (3.12% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $32,500,000 (1.81%)
   Check 2 Returns: $764,697 (0.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $54,727,093 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $1,929,850 (own at exit: 3.53%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $9,500,000 (4.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,929,850 (3.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $48,176,481 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,399,829
Return: $2,901,343 (own at exit: 6.02%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $16,000,000 (2.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,008,695 (2.09% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $15,000,000 (3.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,892,647 (3.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $42,859,625 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $6,378,531
Return: $6,260,567 (own at exit: 14.61%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $7,000,000 (5.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,051,139 (4.79% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $6,000,000 (9.82%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,209,427 (9.82% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $42,181,460 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $6,464,679
Return: $5,694,170 (own at exit: 13.5%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $4,000,000 (10.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,532,697 (8.38% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $11,500,000 (5.12%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,161,472 (5.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $11,900,307 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $343,673 (own at exit: 2.89%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $14,500,000 (2.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $343,672 (2.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $11,759,652 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $1,641,451 (own at exit: 13.96%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $3,000,000 (13.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,641,451 (13.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 31 - $11,646,270 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $1,219,219 (own at exit: 10.47%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $4,000,000 (10.47%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,219,218 (10.47% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $11,432,179 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $5,000,000
Return: $957,445 (own at exit: 8.38%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $5,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $957,445 (8.38% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $10,155,228 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $354,375 (own at exit: 3.49%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $12,000,000 (3.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $354,375 (3.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $10,133,804 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $217,617 (own at exit: 2.15%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,500,000 (2.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $217,616 (2.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $8,816,613 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $527,422 (own at exit: 5.98%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $7,000,000 (5.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $527,422 (5.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $8,528,325 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $11,000,000
Return: $324,658 (own at exit: 3.81%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,000,000 (3.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $324,657 (3.81% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $8,179,212 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $1,141,682 (own at exit: 13.96%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $3,000,000 (13.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,141,681 (13.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $5,792,590 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $16,000,000
Return: $151,603 (own at exit: 2.62%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $16,000,000 (2.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $151,602 (2.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $5,738,699 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $208,963 (own at exit: 3.64%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,500,000 (3.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $208,963 (3.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $5,480,148 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $26,286,152
Return: $92,439 (own at exit: 1.69%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,500,000 (2.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $60,642 (1.11% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $52,000,000 (1.13%)
   Check 2 Returns: $31,796 (0.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 34 - $5,238,607 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $66,557 (own at exit: 1.27%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $13,500,000 (3.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $66,557 (1.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $5,234,328 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $18,500,000
Return: $118,480 (own at exit: 2.26%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $18,500,000 (2.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $118,479 (2.26% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $5,230,042 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $12,220,649
Return: $188,842 (own at exit: 3.61%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $7,000,000 (5.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $128,150 (2.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $26,000,000 (2.27%)
   Check 2 Returns: $60,691 (1.16% ownership @ exit)

Company 36 - $5,203,582 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $71,401 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $12,500,000 (3.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $71,401 (1.37% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $5,147,676 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $165,815 (own at exit: 3.22%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $13,000,000 (3.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $165,814 (3.22% ownership @ exit)

Company 30 - $4,929,000 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $137,601 (own at exit: 2.79%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,000,000 (2.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $137,601 (2.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $4,906,557 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $22,980,479
Return: $99,122 (own at exit: 2.02%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,000,000 (2.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $44,293 (0.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $27,000,000 (2.18%)
   Check 2 Returns: $54,828 (1.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 35 - $4,812,107 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $18,000,000
Return: $111,948 (own at exit: 2.33%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $18,000,000 (2.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $111,948 (2.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $4,156,616 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,830,659
Return: $113,235 (own at exit: 2.72%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $8,000,000 (5.23%)
   Check 1 Returns: $89,117 (2.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $52,000,000 (1.13%)
   Check 2 Returns: $24,117 (0.58% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.27%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $13,500,000 (3.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $10,000,000 (4.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $18,493,088
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.34%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $9,500,000 (4.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.81% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $56,500,000 (1.04%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.64%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $6,500,000 (6.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,301,709
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,500,000 (3.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.49% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $20,000,000 (2.95%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.51% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $20,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 0.86%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $20,000,000 (2.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $10,360,420
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.12%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $5,000,000 (8.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.43% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $43,500,000 (1.35%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $26,992,091
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.69%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,000,000 (2.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (0.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $38,500,000 (1.53%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.29%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $7,500,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 32 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.27%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $13,500,000 (3.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 33 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $7,991,977
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.17%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,000,000 (2.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.14% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $6,000,000 (9.82%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (5.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 38 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,157,619
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.93%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $9,000,000 (4.65%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $29,500,000 (2%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.02% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 17 - $11,835,171,239 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $15,500,000
Return: $104,772,571 (own at exit: 0.89%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,500,000 (2.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $104,772,571 (0.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 36 - $272,762,432 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $18,129,693
Return: $11,219,017 (own at exit: 4.11%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $20,000,000 (2.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,655,016 (1.34% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $17,000,000 (3.47%)
   Check 2 Returns: $7,564,000 (2.77% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $235,660,400 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $26,706,452
Return: $6,262,533 (own at exit: 2.66%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $18,500,000 (2.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,413,891 (1.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $39,000,000 (1.51%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,848,642 (1.21% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $116,249,530 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $7,163,185 (own at exit: 6.16%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,000,000 (2.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,596,239 (2.23% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $15,000,000 (3.93%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,566,945 (3.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 20 - $113,674,186 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $17,000,000
Return: $2,240,050 (own at exit: 1.97%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $17,000,000 (2.46%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,240,050 (1.97% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $102,248,212 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $21,561,620
Return: $4,035,612 (own at exit: 3.95%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,500,000 (3.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,978,534 (2.91% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $57,000,000 (1.03%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,057,077 (1.03% ownership @ exit)

Company 24 - $79,134,031 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $30,467,766
Return: $1,151,991 (own at exit: 1.46%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $18,000,000 (2.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $754,059 (0.95% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $60,000,000 (0.98%)
   Check 2 Returns: $397,931 (0.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 25 - $74,108,400 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $18,517,396
Return: $1,776,651 (own at exit: 2.4%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,000,000 (3.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,155,552 (1.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $36,000,000 (1.64%)
   Check 2 Returns: $621,098 (0.84% ownership @ exit)

Company 23 - $73,117,135 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $18,195,553
Return: $1,788,933 (own at exit: 2.45%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,000,000 (3.81%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,140,095 (1.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $34,000,000 (1.73%)
   Check 2 Returns: $648,837 (0.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $59,592,240 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $29,152,965
Return: $1,797,872 (own at exit: 3.02%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,000,000 (2.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,050,705 (1.76% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $47,000,000 (1.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $747,167 (1.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $49,098,388 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $16,886,564
Return: $2,447,142 (own at exit: 4.98%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $8,500,000 (4.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,935,054 (3.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $56,500,000 (1.04%)
   Check 2 Returns: $512,088 (1.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 27 - $43,548,916 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $26,433,537
Return: $1,425,421 (own at exit: 3.27%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,500,000 (2.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $941,218 (2.16% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $53,000,000 (1.11%)
   Check 2 Returns: $484,202 (1.11% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $11,975,768 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $401,188 (own at exit: 3.35%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $12,500,000 (3.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $401,188 (3.35% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $11,501,726 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $275,220 (own at exit: 2.39%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $17,500,000 (2.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $275,219 (2.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $11,341,143 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $243,544 (own at exit: 2.15%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,500,000 (2.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $243,543 (2.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 22 - $10,460,408 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $19,000,000
Return: $230,542 (own at exit: 2.2%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,000,000 (2.2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $230,541 (2.2% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $9,652,848 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $19,500,000
Return: $207,289 (own at exit: 2.15%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $19,500,000 (2.15%)
   Check 1 Returns: $207,288 (2.15% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $9,376,078 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $872,496 (own at exit: 9.31%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $4,500,000 (9.31%)
   Check 1 Returns: $872,496 (9.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $8,935,681 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $1,069,090 (own at exit: 11.96%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $3,500,000 (11.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,069,090 (11.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $8,782,609 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $17,500,000
Return: $210,155 (own at exit: 2.39%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $17,500,000 (2.39%)
   Check 1 Returns: $210,155 (2.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 35 - $8,659,380 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $241,741 (own at exit: 2.79%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,000,000 (2.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $241,741 (2.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 38 - $5,351,437 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $122,384 (own at exit: 2.29%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $7,500,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $122,383 (2.29% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $5,249,860 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $20,000,000
Return: $109,919 (own at exit: 2.09%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $20,000,000 (2.09%)
   Check 1 Returns: $109,918 (2.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $5,136,086 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $16,000,000
Return: $55,059 (own at exit: 1.07%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $16,000,000 (2.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $55,058 (1.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $4,972,873 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $63,181 (own at exit: 1.27%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $13,500,000 (3.1%)
   Check 1 Returns: $63,181 (1.27% ownership @ exit)

Company 37 - $4,869,231 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $10,000,000
Return: $203,899 (own at exit: 4.19%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $10,000,000 (4.19%)
   Check 1 Returns: $203,899 (4.19% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $4,546,796 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $126,931 (own at exit: 2.79%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $15,000,000 (2.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $126,931 (2.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 30 - $4,442,671 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $8,500,000
Return: $218,867 (own at exit: 4.93%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $8,500,000 (4.93%)
   Check 1 Returns: $218,866 (4.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $4,346,134 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $9,454,292
Return: $206,197 (own at exit: 4.74%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $6,000,000 (6.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $124,241 (2.86% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $16,000,000 (3.68%)
   Check 2 Returns: $81,955 (1.89% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $4,237,561 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $154,302 (own at exit: 3.64%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $11,500,000 (3.64%)
   Check 1 Returns: $154,302 (3.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 28 - $4,115,058 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $143,598 (own at exit: 3.49%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $12,000,000 (3.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $143,598 (3.49% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $7,145,570
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $3,500,000 (11.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $27,500,000 (2.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 21 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.32%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $13,000,000 (3.22%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.32% ownership @ exit)

Company 26 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,147,585
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.84%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $7,500,000 (5.58%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.29% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $55,000,000 (1.07%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 29 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.12%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $5,500,000 (7.61%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.12% ownership @ exit)

Company 31 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $17,492,801
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.5%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $9,500,000 (4.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.81% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $43,500,000 (1.35%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0.69% ownership @ exit)

Company 32 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $1,008,036
Blended Cost Basis: $15,087,584
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.15%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $16,000,000 (2.62%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.07% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $589,286 @ $14,500,000 (4.06%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 33 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.86%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $6,000,000 (6.98%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.86% ownership @ exit)

Company 34 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.18%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $14,500,000 (2.89%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.18% ownership @ exit)

Company 39 - $0 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $418,750
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.72%)
   Check 1: $418,750 @ $3,000,000 (13.96%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.72% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$25,000,000
Investments
40
Reserve
33%
Follow-on rate
33%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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AI Market (Pre-seed and Seed)

Hypothetical market model for AI in 2023 -- pre-seed and seed

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$3-20M
Follow-on Valuation
$6-60M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.001% $100B 5
0.1% $50B 6
0.1% $10B 6
0.5% $5B 5
2% $1B 4
3% $250M 3
4% $100M 2
5% $75M 5
10% $50M 2
15% $10M 1
20% $5M 1
15% $5M 5
25.299% $0 5