Test by @ashl3ysm1th

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
85.4%
3x
36.3%
10x
5.2%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.38
Median
2.27
Top Quartile
3.80

Investments

Initial Check
$250K
Follow-on
$0
Blended Cost Basis
$8M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
5.15%
Avg At Exit
6.38%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 9 - $1,184,694,426 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $15,000,000
Return: $6,470,011 (own at exit: 0.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $15,000,000 (1.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,470,011 (0.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $113,346,341 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $1,116,026 (own at exit: 0.98%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,116,025 (0.98% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $31,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $58,612,800 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $646,762 (own at exit: 1.1%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $646,761 (1.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $57,437,964 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $3,063,358 (own at exit: 5.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,063,358 (5.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $53,491,346 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $633,972 (own at exit: 1.19%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $633,971 (1.19% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $30,000,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.63%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,500,000 (2.63%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,500,000 (3.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 16.67%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,500,000 (16.67%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (16.67% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,500,000 (3.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $9,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.78%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $9,000,000 (2.78%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.78% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.92%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,000,000 (1.92%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.92% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.33%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (8.33% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $13,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.85%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $13,500,000 (1.85%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.85% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.25% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 0 - $1,171,080,777 exit after 6 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $6,000,000
Return: $15,989,156 (own at exit: 1.37%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $6,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $15,989,156 (1.37% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $40,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $103,950,206 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $917,629 (own at exit: 0.88%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $917,629 (0.88% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $94,404,229 exit after 4 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $11,500,000
Return: $1,050,760 (own at exit: 1.11%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $11,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $1,050,760 (1.11% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $0 @ $37,500,000 (0%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (0% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $55,332,870 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $10,500,000
Return: $843,168 (own at exit: 1.52%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $10,500,000 (2.38%)
   Check 1 Returns: $843,167 (1.52% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $46,352,310 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $2,118,963 (own at exit: 4.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,118,962 (4.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 10%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $2,500,000 (10%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (10% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $4,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.56%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $4,500,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5.56% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $2,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 12.5%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $2,000,000 (12.5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (12.5% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $7,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.57%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $7,000,000 (3.57%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $5,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 4.55%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $5,500,000 (4.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.55% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $1,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 25%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $1,000,000 (25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (25% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.79%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,000,000 (1.79%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2.08%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,000,000 (2.08%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $12,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 2%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $12,500,000 (2%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (2% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $14,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 1.72%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $14,500,000 (1.72%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (1.72% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $3,500,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.14%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $3,500,000 (7.14%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.14% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 1 rounds
Invested: $250,000
Blended Cost Basis: $8,000,000
Return: $0 (own at exit: 3.12%)
   Check 1: $250,000 @ $8,000,000 (3.12%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.12% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$5,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
0%
Follow-on rate
0%
Follow-on Picking
Above Average Picking

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Silicon Valley Seed Market

Made up data for Seed investing. This assumes the first investment is at seed and the follow-on is at Series A.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$1-15M
Follow-on Valuation
$20-50M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
0.1% $10B 7
1% $1B 6
1% $500M 5
5% $100M 4
20% $50M 3
72.9% $0 1