Fork of Opportunity by @atmotony

Probability of Fund Multiple

1x
84.7%
3x
18.7%
10x
0.1%

TVPI Distribution

3rd Quartile
1.12
Median
1.43
Top Quartile
1.89

Investments

Initial Check
$2M
Follow-on
$2.9M
Blended Cost Basis
$57.4M

Company Ownership

Avg Initial
6.14%
Avg At Exit
3.5%
Dilution/Round
20%

Median Performing Portfolio

50% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, and 50% performed better. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Median Fund Portfolio

Company 3 - $1,030,203,236 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $63,966,989
Return: $34,967,422 (own at exit: 3.39%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $41,500,000 (4.82%)
   Check 1 Returns: $20,335,963 (1.97% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $103,000,000 (2.77%)
   Check 2 Returns: $14,631,457 (1.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $1,005,964,119 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $72,748,457
Return: $30,004,773 (own at exit: 2.98%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $47,000,000 (4.26%)
   Check 1 Returns: $17,533,740 (1.74% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $118,000,000 (2.42%)
   Check 2 Returns: $12,471,032 (1.24% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $229,924,197 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $73,043,401
Return: $10,744,976 (own at exit: 4.67%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $49,500,000 (4.04%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,945,514 (2.59% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $109,500,000 (2.61%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,799,461 (2.09% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $168,883,338 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $51,644,404
Return: $10,991,107 (own at exit: 6.51%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $31,500,000 (6.35%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,862,561 (4.06% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $93,500,000 (3.06%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,128,546 (2.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $166,971,659 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $51,101,623
Return: $10,753,409 (own at exit: 6.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $27,500,000 (7.27%)
   Check 1 Returns: $7,771,771 (4.65% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $128,000,000 (2.23%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,981,636 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $117,301,903 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $45,603,463
Return: $8,397,589 (own at exit: 7.16%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $23,500,000 (8.51%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,389,210 (5.45% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $133,500,000 (2.14%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,008,379 (1.71% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $116,577,917 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $48,718,229
Return: $7,916,467 (own at exit: 6.79%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $27,000,000 (7.41%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,526,656 (4.74% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $111,500,000 (2.56%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,389,809 (2.05% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $115,805,991 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $38,532,297
Return: $9,954,605 (own at exit: 8.6%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $21,500,000 (9.3%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,894,496 (5.95% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $86,500,000 (3.3%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,060,108 (2.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $110,973,702 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $61,220,761
Return: $6,177,424 (own at exit: 5.57%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $41,000,000 (4.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,464,544 (3.12% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $93,500,000 (3.06%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,712,878 (2.44% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $100,772,794 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $60,968,474
Return: $5,526,812 (own at exit: 5.48%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $36,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,583,032 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $118,500,000 (2.41%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,943,779 (1.93% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $100,706,864 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $68,913,912
Return: $4,872,706 (own at exit: 4.84%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $40,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $3,222,619 (3.2% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $139,500,000 (2.05%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,650,086 (1.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $94,719,570 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $68,893,842
Return: $4,645,536 (own at exit: 4.9%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $43,500,000 (4.6%)
   Check 1 Returns: $2,787,150 (2.94% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $116,500,000 (2.45%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,858,385 (1.96% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $72,020,615
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.85%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $44,500,000 (4.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $127,000,000 (2.25%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.25% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $68,521,142
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.23%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $46,500,000 (4.3%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.44% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $102,500,000 (2.79%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $50,343,468
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.14%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $26,500,000 (7.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.04% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $136,000,000 (2.1%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.1% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $64,241,021
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.59%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $41,000,000 (4.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $106,500,000 (2.68%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.68% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $41,946,746
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.67%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $21,000,000 (9.52%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (7.62% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $139,000,000 (2.06%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.06% ownership @ exit)

Company 15 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $61,841,035
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.88%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $41,000,000 (4.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $96,000,000 (2.98%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.98% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $70,954,793
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.96%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $45,000,000 (4.44%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.56% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $119,000,000 (2.4%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.4% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $44,187,500
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.36%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $24,500,000 (8.16%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.53% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $101,000,000 (2.83%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.83% ownership @ exit)

Top Quartile Portfolio

75% of simulated portfolios performed worse than this portfolio, 25% performed better%. Click 'show/hide details' to see each investment.

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Top Quartile Fund Portfolio

Company 15 - $1,135,340,614 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $53,603,439
Return: $46,213,725 (own at exit: 4.07%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $36,000,000 (5.56%)
   Check 1 Returns: $25,835,306 (2.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $81,500,000 (3.51%)
   Check 2 Returns: $20,378,418 (1.79% ownership @ exit)

Company 10 - $1,090,075,144 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $77,401,470
Return: $30,372,393 (own at exit: 2.79%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $48,000,000 (4.17%)
   Check 1 Returns: $18,603,949 (1.71% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $135,500,000 (2.11%)
   Check 2 Returns: $11,768,444 (1.08% ownership @ exit)

Company 5 - $1,076,433,958 exit after 5 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $43,669,287
Return: $52,482,086 (own at exit: 4.88%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $25,000,000 (8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $35,272,587 (3.28% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $91,500,000 (3.12%)
   Check 2 Returns: $17,209,498 (1.6% ownership @ exit)

Company 4 - $235,644,748 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $54,750,890
Return: $14,569,429 (own at exit: 6.18%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $35,000,000 (5.71%)
   Check 1 Returns: $8,617,865 (3.66% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $90,500,000 (3.16%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,951,564 (2.53% ownership @ exit)

Company 11 - $206,442,226 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $37,247,543
Return: $18,313,821 (own at exit: 8.87%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $20,500,000 (9.76%)
   Check 1 Returns: $12,890,051 (6.24% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $87,000,000 (3.28%)
   Check 2 Returns: $5,423,769 (2.63% ownership @ exit)

Company 0 - $185,474,231 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $55,937,861
Return: $11,163,596 (own at exit: 6.02%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $34,500,000 (5.8%)
   Check 1 Returns: $6,881,362 (3.71% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $99,000,000 (2.89%)
   Check 2 Returns: $4,282,233 (2.31% ownership @ exit)

Company 18 - $172,939,002 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $43,676,240
Return: $13,079,893 (own at exit: 7.56%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $24,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $9,223,413 (5.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $102,500,000 (2.79%)
   Check 2 Returns: $3,856,479 (2.23% ownership @ exit)

Company 3 - $110,798,869 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $53,555,969
Return: $6,816,323 (own at exit: 6.15%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $29,000,000 (6.9%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,890,432 (4.41% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $131,500,000 (2.17%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,925,890 (1.74% ownership @ exit)

Company 14 - $106,180,817 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $56,210,462
Return: $6,244,003 (own at exit: 5.88%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $31,000,000 (6.45%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,384,240 (4.13% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $130,500,000 (2.19%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,859,762 (1.75% ownership @ exit)

Company 9 - $94,429,733 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $42,888,277
Return: $7,296,351 (own at exit: 7.73%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $24,000,000 (8.33%)
   Check 1 Returns: $5,036,252 (5.33% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $95,500,000 (2.99%)
   Check 2 Returns: $2,260,098 (2.39% ownership @ exit)

Company 8 - $90,404,894 exit after 3 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $47,934,762
Return: $6,236,770 (own at exit: 6.9%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $26,500,000 (7.55%)
   Check 1 Returns: $4,366,726 (4.83% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $110,500,000 (2.59%)
   Check 2 Returns: $1,870,043 (2.07% ownership @ exit)

Company 1 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $62,421,516
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.79%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $40,500,000 (4.94%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.95% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $100,500,000 (2.84%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.84% ownership @ exit)

Company 2 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $70,233,674
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.02%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $44,500,000 (4.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $118,000,000 (2.42%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.42% ownership @ exit)

Company 6 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $43,444,444
Return: $0 (own at exit: 9.44%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $23,000,000 (8.7%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (6.96% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $115,000,000 (2.48%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.48% ownership @ exit)

Company 7 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $49,113,283
Return: $0 (own at exit: 8.64%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $32,000,000 (6.25%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (5% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $78,500,000 (3.64%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (3.64% ownership @ exit)

Company 12 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $70,017,452
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.94%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $40,000,000 (5%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $147,500,000 (1.94%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (1.94% ownership @ exit)

Company 13 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $70,201,439
Return: $0 (own at exit: 5.94%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $41,000,000 (4.88%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.9% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $140,000,000 (2.04%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.04% ownership @ exit)

Company 16 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $59,883,267
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.21%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $44,500,000 (4.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $79,000,000 (3.62%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (3.62% ownership @ exit)

Company 17 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $68,716,448
Return: $0 (own at exit: 6.17%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $44,500,000 (4.49%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (3.6% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $111,000,000 (2.57%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (2.57% ownership @ exit)

Company 19 - $0 exit after 2 rounds
Invested: $4,857,143
Blended Cost Basis: $53,715,517
Return: $0 (own at exit: 7.85%)
   Check 1: $2,000,000 @ $33,500,000 (5.97%)
   Check 1 Returns: $0 (4.78% ownership @ exit)
   Check 2: $2,857,143 @ $93,000,000 (3.07%)
   Check 2 Returns: $0 (3.07% ownership @ exit)

Portfolio Size vs TVPI

How changing portfolio size would affect returns.

Reserves (%) vs TVPI

How changing the percent of capital reserved for follow-on would affect returns.

Fund Model

Fund
$100,000,000
Investments
20
Reserve
60%
Follow-on rate
100%
Follow-on Picking
Perfect Picking

Fork this model

Silicon Valley Series A Market

First investment is at Series A and the follow-on is at Series B.

Company Valuations

Entry Valuation
$20-50M
Follow-on Valuation
$75-150M

Dilution

Dilution Per Round
20%

Outcome Distribution

Probability Exit Rounds
1% $10B 6
2% $1B 5
5% $500M 4
20% $200M 3
33% $100M 3
39% $0 2

Fork of Opportunity

Portfolio Size
20
Initial Ownership
16.28%
Terminal Ownership
12.9%
Median TVPI
1.53
Chance of 3x
12.9%
Blended Cost Basis
$14M